The Stanley Cup contender field is wide open this year.
There isn’t an overwhelming favorite on paper like Colorado in 2022 or Tampa Bay 2020 or 2021.
“I poke holes in basically every team this year. There’s not one team that emerges as like Yeah, they’re gonna win the Cup,” one NHL executive said.
It makes the 2024 playoffs harder to predict. Fans, media and statistical models are all giving their takes and projections, but what do people inside the league think? We assembled a seven-person anonymous panel including an NHL GM, four additional high-level NHL front office executives, one scout and an agent. We asked each person to sort all 16 playoff teams into a Tier from 1 to 5 and tallied the average votes.
This is how we explained the Cup contender tiers to our panel:
- Tier 1: Stanley Cup favorites (top 3-4 teams)
- Tier 2: Strong Cup contender (High-end contenders just below the inner circle)
- Tier 3: Darkhorse (Solid team that could make a deep run if they got hot, but have glaring question marks/concerns)
- Tier 4: Long shot (maybe they can get hot and win a round, but they aren’t realistically contending for the Cup)
- Tier 5: First-round cannon fodder (Should feel lucky just to be in the playoffs)
Let’s dive in.
Tier 1
Carolina Hurricanes
Average rating: 1.1
Carolina received a Tier 1 vote from six of our seven panellists, which tied with Florida for the most of any playoff team. The Hurricanes are a possession powerhouse, own the second-ranked power-play in the NHL and the best penalty kill in the NHL. They defend exceptionally well, have a big, mobile blue line and the Jake Guentzel acquisition (25 points in 17 games) has been a slam-dunk.
The agent: “Guentzel’s been unbelievable since he got there. I think he’s changed Aho’s game and lengthened their lineup. And they have the first or second-best coach in the league. They’re going to be a real problem. Some people will question the goalie tandem but I think (Pyotr) Kochetkov has been good enough for long enough and (Frederik) Andersen’s been excellent since he came back. He has pedigree and experience too.”
Andersen has pitched a ridiculous .951 save percentage in 10 games since returning from a blood clot issue, and Kochetkov’s been solid, but a couple of the panellists still weren’t fully sold on the Hurricanes’ goaltending.
“Andersen could get hurt tomorrow,” said Executive 1. “How many times has he been hurt in the regular season or playoffs? If they get consistent, healthy goaltending they’re right up there.”
Florida Panthers
Average rating: 1.1
Florida has an elite top-nine, a hard-nosed, physical identity that our panelists love, a blue line greater than the sum of its parts and a top-10 ranked power-play and penalty kill.
The GM: “They’re hard, heavy, they can play the game any way.”
The agent: “They’ll be my pick to win the whole thing. They’ve been there before. (Anthony) Stolarz has been unbelievable when he’s gotten games (.927 save percentage) so they’re protected in the event that Bob (Sergei Bobrovsky) struggles or gets hurt. They’re two goalies deep which matters. I saw the Bennett/Tkachuk line play (recently) and they were just unbelievable. They were going crazy with the tenacity, puck play and feeding off each other — I think it’s the scariest second line in the East.”
The Panthers’ sliding form over the last month or so could be a blemish. Florida lost eight of 10 games from late March to early April. They closed the season by winning five of their last six games, but only one of those victories was against a playoff team.
Dallas Stars
Average rating: 1.3
Dallas was the highest-rated Western Conference team, earning five Tier 1 votes, well ahead of the second-best Western club.
The Stars’ forward group is arguably the deepest in the NHL — their “third line” features Wyatt Johnston (32 goals and 65 points), Jamie Benn (60 points) and hot-shot call-up Logan Stankoven (14 points in 24 games). Their blue line is substantially upgraded from last year and Jake Oettinger, who struggled for most of the year, is heating up at the perfect time with a .941 percentage in his last 11 games.
The GM: “They’re my favorite to win coming out of the West.”
Executive 1: “They’re elite in a bunch of ways. I think transitioning the puck gets overlooked… the speed at which Dallas gets the puck up the ice is the separating factor. Their defense is elite. You’re going to have Heiskanen, Lindell, (Harley) and Tanev — there’s no weak links there. They have four guys that can play 23 minutes a night, I think that might help Heiskanen.”
Executive 2: “I love them — my only knock on Dallas is they don’t have an offensive player that is a superstar. They don’t really have a guy that you can say OK, with a minute left I’ll put this guy on the ice and he’s getting you a goal, he’s winning you a series. Like it could be Jason Robertson, it could be Roope Hintz, it could be Wyatt Johnston or Stankoven but they don’t have an impact (star) the way some of these other teams have — they don’t have a MacKinnon, a McDavid, a Draisaitl, even a Jack Eichel. It’s not a (huge) hole because they’ve got such good depth.”
Tier 2
New York Rangers
Average rating: 1.6
Despite winning the Presidents’ Trophy, the Rangers just missed the cut on making Tier 1 (four Tier 2 votes compared to three Tier 1 votes). New York’s even-strength play does lag the Tier 1 teams — they only had a plus-one goal differential at five-on-five and their underlying numbers are middle-of-the-pack. The Rangers can, however, make up for it with their elite special teams.
The GM: “When we played them in the year I thought Wow, they’re going to be a hard team to beat (in the playoffs). They don’t have many weaknesses.”
Executive 1: “On paper, they’re the most talented team from front to back. (Igor) Shesterkin is really good, they’ve got Fox (and a good D core), they’ve got a good complimentary cast of forwards. The playoffs get hard and they struggle a little… I like the Rangers better in the regular season than the playoffs. It’s matchups (the key to them winning the East): I think the Rangers have to avoid Florida. Even though they’re a better team than Boston, I don’t love that (stylistic) matchup and then Carolina’s a (toss-up) — I think the Rangers beat everybody else pretty handily. They’ll walk Washington (in round one).”
Edmonton Oilers
Average rating: 1.8
Many of our panelists view Edmonton similarly: They see an outstanding forward group, a decent-but-not-elite blue line and a question mark in net.
The agent: “I feel in the last 12 months he’s (McDavid) become more (dialed in as a leader). Early in his career, he (McDavid) was very shy. I feel like he’s just locked in right now… and guys like him or MacKinnon or Patrick Mahomes or prime Tiger Woods, I just think you’re at the mercy of them. He’s the most terrifying player I’ve ever seen. You could easily convince me they’re a Tier 1 team because he can just go out and score 16 points in six games and (as the opponent) you just lose.”
One of the executives wasn’t sold on Edmonton’s blue line after Mattias Ekholm and went deep on how that could be exploited to slow McDavid down.
Executive 2: “The easiest way to shut down the Oilers is preventing McDavid from picking up steam in the neutral zone. The way you prevent McDavid from picking up steam is to mess with the way they do their breakouts and (defensive zone) exits. That starts with their retrievals. Ekholm, good f—ing player, but he can’t make plays on his backhand and Bouchard won’t retrieve the puck (in the corners).
“We had a good meeting about that before we played Edmonton. We executed that strategy perfectly and we just abused them. If I’m going up against the Oilers and I identify that vulnerability, that is what I’m going after.”
By and large though, the panel agreed that the Oilers are bona fide Cup contenders despite their flaws because of how McDavid and Draisaitl can take a series over.
Colorado Avalanche
Average rating: 2.0
The Avalanche were one of the most polarizing teams in this exercise. They received two votes in Tier 1, three votes in Tier 2 and two votes in Tier 3.
The varying opinions are understandable because they have terrifying star power yet they’ve struggled down the stretch (although the same was true in 2022 when they won the Cup) and Alexandar Georgiev has imploded with an .840 save percentage in his last six games.
“They should be higher, but only because of goaltending,” said the GM, who rated them in Tier 3. “I’m not sold on it… and maybe not getting Landeskog back.”
Executive 2: “I like them because when you’ve got Cale Makar, when you have Nathan MacKinnon, it’s the same as having Draisaitl/McDavid — those guys can just win you a series.”
Executive 2 also highlighted that he likes the Casey Mittelstadt acquisition and how it addressed the second-line center position.
Executive 1: “I think they’re treading water with their head barely above right now. They have so much talent with Makar, MacKinnon and so many other good pieces around, they’ve won (a Cup before but) they need something to go right and get on a roll otherwise they’re in trouble.”
Vegas Golden Knights
Average rating: 2.3
After firing on all cylinders for the first three weeks of the season, the Golden Knights haven’t played near their peak. Vegas went 34-29-7 through the final 70 games, ranking 10th among Western Conference teams in points percentage during that timeframe. Key injuries have, of course, played a major role in that. That’s why most of our panel extended Vegas the benefit of the doubt, even if there was some hesitancy.
Executive 2: “On paper, what box don’t they check? I guess just kind of goaltending but (Adin Hill) is proven in the playoffs. On paper, their D is excellent with Pietrangelo, Hanifin, Hague, McNabb, Theodore, Martinez and Whitecloud. And up front, you basically added Hertl and Mark Stone for the playoff run. This is a high-end team. The only reason they’re not a Tier 1 team for me is they just haven’t executed in the regular season. What version of Stone are you getting? How good is Hertl going to be? How well is your team going to flip the switch?”
Vegas’ goaltending is a question mark. Since the All-Star break, Hill has a 7-10-0 record and an .882 save percentage. Thompson has been vastly superior in that timeframe but he’s never played an NHL playoff game before. Drawing Dallas in the first round doesn’t give Vegas much margin for error. The Golden Knights need to hit their elite form and get steady goaltending immediately.
Winnipeg Jets
Average rating: 2.4
Winnipeg narrowly made the cut for Tier 2. The Jets boast the league’s best goaltender, a deep forward group, quality team defense and are entering the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak.
The GM: “They play well against Colorado. They can get through with the goaltending they have, the defensive (play) and then to add Toffoli and Monahan (offensively at the trade deadline).”
Executive 1: “They’re a Jekyll and Hyde team, it depends what version shows up. You got the Winnipeg that lost six in a row and then followed up winning eight in a row (to finish the season). They’re a streaky team. I think they can beat any team in the league but I (still) think Winnipeg’s gonna have a tough time.”
Executive 2: “Hellebuyck is a superstar. Up front, (they’re) very, very deep. They do have a game-breaker potentially in Scheifele or Connor or even Ehlers. If I could design a third-line center in a lab, it’d be Adam Lowry.”
Winnipeg’s power-play has come to life in April, which is critical because it previously looked like a weakness. Many of our panelists expect the Jets/Avalanche series to be very close.
Tier 3
Boston Bruins
Average rating: 2.9
Boston and Toronto tied with the same 2.9 average tier rating which is fitting considering they’re about to play each other.
“I think they’re gonna bounce back,” said the GM, who was the lone panelist to slot them in Tier 2. “I think losing last year in the first round they’re going to be motivated and there’s not as much pressure this year. I don’t see them as that Rangers, Carolina, Florida echelon, they’re just below that.”
Executive 2: “Pastrnak’s a legit superstar, Marchand’s still elite, McAvoy’s elite, Lindholm’s elite, their goaltending is elite. It’s just one piece up front they’re missing and that’s Patrice Bergeron.”
Universally, the panelists agreed that Boston lacks offensive depth up front.
Executive 1: “They’re really heavy and hard to play against all over the ice. I really like their D core, you could put out McAvoy and Lindholm in any situation for 27 minutes a game, all playoffs long, their structure (is great), but they’re just not deep enough (up front). I think they’re good enough to win one round, but I think their (forward) depth costs them after.”
Toronto Maple Leafs
Average rating: 2.9
Toronto’s narrative was easy to formulate: Everybody loves their offensive firepower but has varying levels of concern regarding the blue line and goaltending. The Leafs only appear to have two contender-quality top-four defensemen in Morgan Rielly and Jake McCabe (multiple executives brought up T.J. Brodie’s sharp decline this season as an issue). Ilya Samsonov is a total wild card in net.
The GM: “Offensively, they’ve got elite firepower. And now it seems like they’re getting scoring from Bertuzzi, McMann, from (all parts of the lineup).”
Executive 2: “I don’t have any faith in their D or goaltending. Their D is really bad on paper and (so is) their team defense.”
Executive 1: “They’re certainly lucky to play Boston in the first round and not Florida. It’s not like a big consolation prize either, Boston’s not a great matchup for them. The only thing is the Leafs are deeper than Boston (up front), they have more firepower. I certainly wouldn’t want to be betting money on them, but I think they can win a round. The Boston series is a (coin flip). If they’re fortunate enough to get by Boston, I think it ends after that.”
Vancouver Canucks
Average rating: 3.1
Our panel, except for the GM, wasn’t fully sold on the Canucks as a high-end Stanley Cup contender despite Vancouver finishing second place in the Western Conference.
“If they made it to the (Stanley Cup) Finals, it wouldn’t shock me,” said the GM, who was the lone panelist to rank them in Tier 2.
Executive 2: “I look at the rest of that D core and I’m like Quinn Hughes needs to be a f—ing Bobby Orr for them. I’m not a Hronek guy — he did the exact same thing last year, he had an incredibly hot first half of the season and cooled off a bit. Hronek can complement a D very well because he has a lot of good attributes, but Hronek for me is a No.3/4 (on a Cup contender). I don’t have any faith in Tyler Myers. Soucy’s solid, Cole’s solid but again I just don’t love this D core.”
Executive 1: “Getting Nashville does help (the Canucks), I think they got the right matchup for the first round, but I don’t see them winning more than a round. The first year in the playoffs is just hard.
“This is how I look at it: Do you like Vancouver (as a favorite) against Dallas? No. Do you like Vancouver (as a favorite) against Winnipeg? Probably not. Do you like Vancouver (as a favorite) against Vegas? No. Do you like Vancouver (as a favorite) against Edmonton? Well, the goalie difference (Demko being elite and Skinner not) makes it pretty even, but I look at McDavid and Draisaitl and think that they find a way. Do you like Vancouver (as a favorite) against L.A.? (The Kings) are as flawed a team as there is and I’m not sure I like Vancouver against L.A. I don’t think Vancouver’s a clear favorite against anybody but Nashville. I’m not a believer yet.”
Tampa Bay Lightning
Average rating: 3.1
The Lightning have shown some promising signs over the last several weeks. Tampa Bay’s struggling five-on-five defensive metrics have rebounded sharply, their power-play and penalty kill both rank top-three in the NHL since the All-Star break and Anthony Duclair’s acquisition (eight goals and 15 points in 17 games) has injected vital secondary scoring.
On the other hand, Florida is an incredibly challenging first-round opponent, the blue line looks vulnerable without Mikhail Sergachev and Andrei Vasilevskiy has been inconsistent.
The agent: “I just don’t think they can overcome the Sergachev injury. They’re asking too much from some of these guys like Perbix and Emil Lilleberg.”
Executive 1: “Every one of their guys — except for Kucherov — looks like a slightly lesser version of the guys that won the Cup. And that’s normal. At some point, you regress as a team and as a player. Vasilevskiy was the beacon of consistency but now you see more ups and downs. Hedman was Makar at f—ing 6-foot-6 and now he’s not, he’s slightly less of a driving force. Can they rally and put it together for 20 games? Yeah, they’ve won (Cups before). But I just think it’s unlikely.”
Tier 4
Los Angeles Kings
Average rating: 3.7
The Kings are excellent structurally, have solid forward depth, and a dependable blue line, but they lack offensive game-breakers, their goaltending has been highlighted as a red flag and they’re facing an Oilers team that’s had their number in back-to-back years. L.A. is the clear underdog in round one.
The agent: “There’s weirdness in the water with the Dubois year and how it’s not gone well. You can maybe win a round but you’re going to run into Oettinger or Hellebuyck and it’s going to be too hard for them to overcome the goaltending.”
Executive 2: “It’s Dallas without Jake Oettinger is how I would look at (the Kings). Like Fiala can score, Kopitar’s great, Byfield’s great, Danault’s one of the best shutdown guys, Arvidsson is hopefully effective for them, Kempe’s a good player. Pierre-Luc Dubois, what version of him are you going to get?”
Nashville Predators
Average rating: 3.9
A couple of our panelists warned that the Canucks and Predators series might end up closer than people expect. Nashville caught fire in the second half, which included an 18-game point streak. Since Jan 1, they’ve controlled 55 percent of five-on-five expected goals, which ranks fifth-best behind only Carolina, Edmonton, Dallas and Vancouver. They also own the NHL’s second-best power play since the All-Star break.
The agent: “I think of them as a sneaky team. I think that kind of heat check is so valuable this time of year where they’ll walk in and think that they can beat anybody. I’d probably pick Nashville (over Vancouver) just because of how together and well they’ve played like Forsberg, Saros and Josi.”
Executive 2: “I’d take Vancouver (if I had to predict a winner) but they (Nashville) can beat Vancouver.”
Not everyone is buying the hype on Nashville’s second-half run, though.
Executive 1: “I don’t think they’re a very good team, man. I just think there’s a lot of holes there. They’re a high-octane, rush-based team. (In the playoffs), other teams are going to play a higher level of D, with a higher level of compete… different types of back pressure and we’ve all seen how difficult it is to get to the middle of the ice in the playoffs.”
Tier 5
New York Islanders
Average rating: 4.7
The Islanders have improved defensively under Patrick Roy, particularly in the neutral zone, but we couldn’t find believers for them heading into the playoffs. It obviously doesn’t help that they”ll be going up against Carolina, who’s widely perceived as one of the top Stanley Cup favorites.
Executive 2: “They have elite goaltending and there’s some good pieces, but they’re your run-of-the-mill bubble team and I don’t like the way they play.”
Executive 1: “He’s (Roy) a high-level coach, a high-level motivator and he showed that just by getting them into the playoffs when they shouldn’t have. You see teams elevate their games (come playoff time)? I think you’re (already) seeing (the) Islanders top-level game right now. Carolina has at least another level if not two, the Rangers have another level.”
Washington Capitals
Average rating: 4.9
The Capitals’ goaltending has been solid and their power-play is No.1 in the NHL since the All-Star break but other than that, their outlook is grim. Washington’s -37 goal differential is well-known by now and the club only has two forwards who’ve cracked 40 points this season.
Executive 3: “They’ve got a lot of pride, a lot of veterans, the goaltending has been unbelievable, but there’s nothing sexy about that team at all.”
Executive 2: “I actually think they’ve been well-coached this year but other than not they’re just not a playoff team.”
(Photo: Richard W. Rodriguez / AP Photo)
