It is 76 days since Liverpool moved back to the top of the 2024-25 Premier League table with a 2-1 home win against Brighton & Hove Albion — a position they haven’t relinquished since.
Arne Slot’s side are not always showing imperious form but have still only been beaten once in their 20 league matches so far and have a four-point advantage over second-placed Arsenal, with a game in hand, going into the weekend’s fixtures.
So, are Liverpool destined to win just their second domestic championship in 35 years? And, if they are, at what point in the coming months will that triumph become all but nailed-on? We convened an expert panel — some with affiliations to the Anfield side, others to Liverpool’s biggest rivals — and sought their views.
Pep Guardiola has fried all of our brains.
He’s shattered a lot of English football’s illusions about its exceptionalism during his nine years as Manchester City manager. He’s affected the way pretty much every team in the country play. He’s changed what we all expect our full-backs to do. And our central defenders.
More immediately, he’s altered what we all think a title race looks like.
For the past few years – with one exception – the standard for anyone hoping to win the Premier League has been, as Jurgen Klopp once put it, perfection. Even to be close to that meant getting more than 90 points from the available 114. Actually claiming the crown usually required more: 93, or 98, or 100.
This season is different. A total of 85 will probably do it, maybe even 82. That means our reactions to individual results are out of kilter: in a campaign when City do nothing but win, drawing once at home can be fatal; in one where there’s more leeway for their rivals, the damage is limited.
Liverpool’s current league position, of course, makes them favourites, even if that game they have in hand is the last league derby at Goodison Park — hardly a gimme. But there is little to suggest the four-point advantage Arne Slot’s team currently hold over Arsenal is likely to be decisive. This is not the sort of season where a lead, once obtained, will not be surrendered.
Arne Slot has made a superb start to life in English football (Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)
Liverpool’s schedule, from here on in, is more challenging than Arsenal’s; it’s not unimaginable that they might draw three more games than Mikel Arteta’s side over the next four months.
Arsenal do not have a massive margin for error but I’d only be relatively confident that the twists and turns had ended if Liverpool came out of their game against them at Anfield, on the second weekend in May, with a three-point lead. And a superior goal difference, just to be safe.
Rory Smith
Call it a hard-bitten Evertonian self-defence mechanism, but I live with a chronic condition which presents as a persistent, underlying premonition of major Liverpool success. For example: they could be 18th in the 20-team Premier League table, managerless and riddled with injuries, and my nervous system would be preparing for an unlikely cup win and surge to a top-four finish.
So I’ve been tingling with the feeling that the 2024-25 title is coming to Anfield ever since they beat Real Madrid (in the Champions League) and Manchester City back-to-back in the space of five days as November became December.
A small part of me still just can’t rule out some astonishing City revival where they win every game between now and the end of the campaign in late May, as Liverpool drop points due to lingering defensive issues. Or that Arsenal will sign a decent goalscorer before this winter transfer window closes in a couple of weeks and really make it a contest.
But it would still be infinitely more likely that Liverpool will find another gear and triumph comfortably.
As it stands, I think it will only be after they have come through successive games against Chelsea and Arsenal in early May that I will completely make my peace with the forthcoming months of endless coverage, parades, plays, poems, films, statues and royal decrees that will accompany their record-equalling 20th top-flight championship.
Greg O’Keeffe
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If you’re a fan of a rival club — Manchester United, say — there is often a point in a season where you have to make peace with the idea the “Bad Thing” might happen, and you start steeling yourself for when friends in the group chat/at five-a-side start gloating more.
For me, that arrived after Liverpool’s trio of fixtures against Tottenham Hotspur, Leicester City and West Ham United either side of Christmas. It wasn’t just that Liverpool were good. It wasn’t just that Manchester City and Arsenal were wobbling. It’s that Arne Slot found enough tactical solutions for the problems the Premier League throws at you.
Left-back is an issue for this team, Darwin Nunez’s pace doesn’t quite compensate for the speed of his decision-making, Alisson is not quite the force he used to be in goal. Alexis Mac Allister – understandably – can look a little leggy when he returns from long-haul international duty in South America with Argentina. Yet Slot keeps tinkering and tweaking while reminding his players at half-time that hard running is not an optional requirement to winning games.
Alisson – a fine goalkeeper, but is he in decline? (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
Liverpool’s 2019-20 title triumph saw a Jurgen Klopp-managed side beat Leicester City 4-0 away on December 26 (it might have been Naby Keita’s last good game for the club) and stamp their authority on the rest of the league. This season’s 3-1 win over them at Anfield on that date wasn’t quite the same (if only because Leicester were a lot stronger five years ago), but there is a similar sense that when Slot’s side switch it on, nobody in England can compete.
Carl Anka
In 2019-20, there were two games around this point in the season that made Jurgen Klopp’s side winning the title feel like an inevitability: the 4-0 away victory against Leicester City on Boxing Day and beating Manchester United 2-0 at Anfield on January 19. The latter was their 21st league win from the season’s first 22 matches. Absurd.
I haven’t experienced that feeling yet this season. It is a funny time to pose this question due to the current wobble Arne Slot’s team is having. Had I been asked this question after the victories over Tottenham Hotspur, Leicester and West Ham United before and after Christmas, I would be more positive. But two draws since to make it three wins in seven league games doesn’t scream title-winning form, although they haven’t lost any of those matches.
As a pessimist when it comes to this type of thing, my realistic answer is: only when it is mathematically impossible for them to be caught, or Virgil van Dijk is actually lifting the trophy.
However, I would love that 2019-20-esque moment to come in a Merseyside derby – ideally the next one, at Goodison Park on February 12, but more likely when Everton go to Anfield in the first week of April. Those games are so crucial to momentum, positive or negative.
Failing that, a positive result at home against Arsenal on the weekend of May 10-11 will probably be the key moment where I’ll believe it is happening.
Andy Jones
Over Liverpool’s last seven Premier League matches, they have dropped points in four. That doesn’t look or sound to me like an unstoppable procession to the title. They’re the favourites to win it from here, sure — but I’m not yet convinced.
The issue, of course, is that their most plausible challengers, Arsenal, have a similar propensity to drop points — and a significant gap to overhaul. They’re also without arguably their best player for a while yet with Bukayo Saka having recently undergone surgery for a torn hamstring — and that blow to their attack has been compounded by an ACL knee injury for Gabriel Jesus last weekend.
Much could depend on how much, if at all, Arsenal strengthen before the winter transfer window closes on February 3.
I feel that Liverpool and Arsenal — and Nottingham Forest, and Newcastle, and Chelsea — will continue to drop points here and there. It will be interesting to see if Manchester City can pick up enough points to close the gap and apply some pressure.
Liverpool host Arsenal on the second weekend in May. Arsenal’s mission for the next four months is to make that game matter — and I think there’s every chance they can.
Only if Liverpool win that one, to give themselves a commanding lead with a couple of weeks of the season to go, will I see them as champions-elect.
James McNicholas
Ever since Steven Pienaar of Everton slid in to secure a 4-4 draw at Old Trafford in April 2012, I’ve always made a point of holding onto hope in a title race.
Pienaar’s 85th-minute equaliser in a match Manchester United had led 3-1 after 66 minutes was a goal that helped Manchester City to make up an eight-point deficit with just six games to go and one of those incredible occasions where the desperate mental gymnastics — ‘They just need to lose at Wigan, drop points at home to Everton, and we’ll beat them at the Etihad’ — perfectly checked out.
But even my optimism can only stretch so far.
City are out of this race, Christian Norgaard’s stoppage-time header to deny them a 2-1 win at Brentford on Tuesday the latest reminder that the reigning champions are far too flaky to make up what is currently a 12-point gap.
Norgaard’s late equaliser for Brentford on Tuesday underlined City’s frailties (Clive Rose/Getty Images)
That realistically leaves Arsenal, who I just can’t see reeling Liverpool back in with their inconsistency in front of goal and injury disruptions to their right-hand side.
Arsenal have to go to Anfield in the season’s third-last round of fixtures, and unless they are practically faultless from now until then, it looks like being the fixture that could allow the current leaders to ease their way to glory.
Thom Harris
When you’re writing about something that may arrive in the future, there’s an understandable caution, a fear that you’ll be made to look ridiculous should your prediction turn out to be nonsense.
But even with that in mind, I’m pretty confident about this one: I won’t predict a point between now and the end of the season on May 25 when it will be clear Liverpool have the title in the bag — because I think it’s already in there.
If we’re picking a point when I became sure, it was probably not a single game, but that first week in December, when they beat Manchester City with relative ease, something that came not long before Arsenal drew with Fulham and then Everton.
The certainty is less about Liverpool, an excellent if not historically brilliant team, but more that I just don’t trust any of the chasing pack to be consistent enough to catch them. City are going through some stuff, Arsenal aren’t ruthless enough, Chelsea are wobbling, teams will figure out how to beat Nottingham Forest soon enough, Newcastle are the form team now but are an Alexander Isak injury away from trouble.
Liverpool will end as the last team standing, the best of a Premier League season in which the overall quality has evened out, without one single behemoth overshadowing the rest.
Nick Miller
It seems to me that only supporters of other clubs are certain that the 2024-25 title will arrive at Anfield.
If it doesn’t, it conveniently gives them the chance to say Liverpool choked. You build them up, you knock them down.
Like a lot of Liverpudlians, I am reasonably confident the season will end in championship success for Arne Slot’s team. Yet there is also caution due to recent memories, as well as longer ones. Under Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool led the way three times at this stage of a season but only once were they in the same position when the music stopped after 38 games.
Further back, the promise of teams led by Roy Evans, Rafael Benitez and Brendan Rodgers was marked in springtime before hopes faded on the run-in.
It is for these reasons that I will only be certain about the possibilities relating to Slot’s Liverpool when those currently chasing can no longer catch them.
Simon Hughes
(Top photo: Phil Noble/AFP via Getty Images)
