In the NFL, not all breakouts are the same. The Chicago Bears went 7-10 last season but then revamped their offense by drafting Caleb Williams and adding Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and D’Andre Swift. It doesn’t take hours of studying all-22 film to see that they should be better. And that’s why Vegas has their projected win total at 8.5.
The Falcons (7-10 last season) swapped out the dreadful quarterback combination of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke for Kirk Cousins. Now, their win total sits at 9.5. The Jets (7-10) should see similar improvement at QB, going from Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers. Hence their 9.5-win projection.
In other words, for the most obvious turnaround candidates, improvement is already baked into betting markets, which doesn’t leave much value on those numbers. So we’re after a different kind of underdog, one that still flies under the radar but has subtle reasons to expect improvement.
Last year, after going through this exercise, we landed on the Texans and Colts. In 2022, we picked the Giants and the Lions. All four of those teams flew past their preseason win projections, largely due to a few factors we’ve found to be hallmarks of big turnarounds.
Sometimes, bad teams look even worse than they are for reasons that extend beyond overall talent and coaching. The NFL is a grind, and injuries don’t affect teams equally. Teams play schedules that vary drastically in strength. Warren Sharp has demonstrated that there can be massive disparities in how many days of rest teams get between games and that big rest advantages (or disadvantages) affect performance. Unusual rates of recovering fumbles or unsustainable records in close games create opportunities for regression. And quarterback play is so crucial that a change at the position can have an outsized impact on team performance.
That final factor played a big role in our Texans pick last season. While we didn’t expect C.J. Stroud to reach historic levels as a rookie, simply upgrading from Davis Mills to a talented rookie should have made a big difference for the Texans. And boy, did it ever, as they crushed their 5.5-win projection with a 10-7 record.
So, armed with historical data, we examined teams that finished below .500 last season and whose projected win totals are below .500 for 2024. When we were done, we found four teams who could be headed for surprisingly better days.
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NFL underdog picks
Arizona Cardinals
2023 record: 4-13
2024 win total at BetMGM: Over 6.5 (-160) | Over 7.5 (+120)
Vegas sees improvement coming from the Cardinals, but even the books aren’t sure what the precise number should be. Over 6.5 wins only generates -160 odds, but over 7.5 feels like asking for a bit too much, which is why it’s a plus-money bet at +120. We certainly feel good about the Cardinals winning seven games, and eight might not be out of the question either.
Why? It starts with a full season of a healthy Kyler Murray. When Murray returned in Week 10 of last year, the Cardinals were sitting at 1-8, with Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune producing just 15.4 points per game. Arizona then went 3-5 the rest of the way and put up 21.9 points per game. Now, Murray is a year further removed from his ACL injury, has made it through a full training camp, and has a new weapon in wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
But there are deeper reasons to project improvement. It turns out that last year’s Cardinals were unlucky: Their Pythagorean, or expected, win total was 5.4, in part because they went just 2-5 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Those stats typically regress to the mean over time. The Cardinals also had terrible injury luck even beyond Murray: They lost over 100 player games to injury, fifth-most in the NFL.
The 2024 schedule is challenging at the start, as the Cardinals will face five playoff teams in their first six games. But the roster is improved: In addition to Harrison, the Cardinals filled several major holes, including the acquisitions of right tackle Jonah Williams, cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, defensive tackles Bilal Nichols and Justin Jones and linebacker Mack Wilson. All will be starters this season, and together with a rejuvenated Murray, they could help the Cardinals double last season’s win total.
Carolina Panthers
2023 record: 2-15
2024 win total at BetMGM: Over 5.5 (-125)
First things first: The Panthers were awful last season. But they weren’t quite as awful as their record indicated. Their Pythagorean win total was 3.5, and while that still would have been the worst record in the league, an extra win and a half makes a difference when you’re trying to make a case for them to get to six victories this year.
Like most unlucky teams, the Panthers performed poorly in close games, going 2-6 in contests decided by eight points or fewer (i.e. one-possession games). Sure, they started a rookie QB, and the offense only cracked the 20-point barrier four times (seriously). But even dreadful teams should perform slightly better in close contests. So upward regression may be coming.
Speaking of that rookie QB, there are reasons to believe Bryce Young will make significant strides in Year 2. Carolina traded for Diontae Johnson, who immediately became the Panthers’ top receiver and who posted a 77.9 Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade, 25th in the league, despite playing with the immortal trio of Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitchell Trubisky in Pittsburgh last season. They also added Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis to the interior of the offensive line (critical moves with a short QB). But perhaps most importantly, Carolina made Dave Canales its new head coach. Over the past couple of seasons, he has earned the reputation as a QB whisperer. Check out Geno Smith’s career before he hooked up with Canales in Seattle in 2022, and Baker Mayfield’s numbers before and after Canales became his coach in Tampa Bay last year:
| QB | Season | Passer Rtg | Games | Comp % | TD | INT | Y/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Pre-Seattle |
72.7 |
40 |
57.70% |
29 |
36 |
6.8 |
|
|
2022 |
100.9 |
17 |
69.80% |
30 |
11 |
7.5 |
|
|
2023 |
92.1 |
15 |
64.70% |
20 |
9 |
7.3 |
|
|
Pre-TB |
86.5 |
72 |
61.40% |
102 |
64 |
7.2 |
|
|
2023 |
94.6 |
17 |
64.30% |
28 |
10 |
7.1 |
Carolina also has three of our other favorite factors working in favor of a turnaround. The Panthers were decimated by injuries last season, losing 120 player games (third-worst in the league). They have a relatively easy schedule this season. It’s 10th overall, and nine of their first 10 games are against teams that had losing records last season. They also have a slight rest advantage (+3). Add it all together, and Carolina should see a marked improvement in 2024.
Minnesota Vikings
2023 record: 7-10
2024 win total at BetMGM: Over 6.5 (-150)
Why do fans, as well as bettors, underestimate particular teams? We can think of many reasons, but here are two big ones: 1) A club’s recent play shows it wasn’t as good as the public had believed, and 2) Its quarterback is its weakest link. Well, ladies and gentlemen, meet the Vikings, who introduced everyone on the planet to the concept of regression to the mean last year and who have replaced Kirk Cousins with Sam Darnold!
Two years ago, Minnesota won 13 games and a divisional title by going a record 11-0 in games decided by one possession. That wasn’t due to some mystical ability to gut out close contests; it was good fortune. The thing is, once the penny flipped in the playoffs, the whole world realized the 2022 season had a smoke-and-mirrors quality to it, and many fans and analysts had a hard time evaluating 2023 — especially after injuries to Cousins and Justin Jefferson. But the Vikings ended up winning only seven games despite being outscored by just 18 points. In sharp contrast to the previous season, they had terrible luck, losing four of their first five games by a total of 20 points and going 4-8 in one-score games overall. Balls are bound to bounce back their way more often this year.
Further, Minnesota signed a terrific batch of free agents this offseason, including running back Aaron Jones, edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel and cornerback Stephon Gilmore. As Brian Flores continues to build a defense that gets after opposing quarterbacks, the Vikings don’t need Darnold to play at Cousins’ level to outperform expectations. They just need him to do better under Kevin O’Connell than the parade of replacements who threw more interceptions than touchdowns over the second half of last season. And for Jones and Jefferson to stay healthy.
Two more factors likely to help at the margins: Greg Joseph, last year’s kicker, missed almost half of his field goal attempts from 40 or more yards and has been replaced by rookie Will Reichard. Fun fact: Reichard, who booted 10 field goals of 50 or more yards at Alabama, is the NCAA’s all-time career leader in points. And though the Vikings face a brutal schedule, they will have 12 more days of rest than their opponents, the second-largest advantage in the league.
This isn’t likely to be a pretty season for the Vikings. But an over/under of 6.5 wins is lowballing a team that’s considerably better now than they looked at the end of last year.
New Orleans Saints
2023 record: 9-8
2024 win total at BetMGM: Over 7.5 (-120)
A serious case of the blues has settled over Who Dat Nation — in fact, according to The Athletic’s Hope-O-Meter survey, Saints fans are the least optimistic in the country entering this season. Widely picked to win the division in 2023, New Orleans had to win four of its final five games just to finish over .500 and missed the playoffs for the third straight year. Now they’re bringing back coach Dennis Allen and QB Derek Carr, and they’re still right up against the salary cap.
But basic facts are basic facts. The Saints scored the ninth-most points in the NFL last season and allowed the eighth-fewest. They just weren’t very efficient at how they conducted their business — they went 4-1 in blowouts but were under .500 in games decided by one score. Carr threw for almost 3,900 yards, had the best touchdown-to-interception ratio of his career (25-8), and was outstanding in the second half. New Orleans did play one of the easiest schedules in the league but for the purposes of figuring out how they are likely to do this year, guess what? The division is still weak. And this offseason, the Saints let veterans go who were no longer essential (Andrus Peat, Michael Thomas, Jameis Winston). They extended Tyrann Mathieu and signed defensive end Chase Young and linebacker Willie Gay. And they drafted well, adding massive tackle Taliese Fuaga and cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry.
If you see Atlanta as the NFC South favorite, Carolina as improving and Tampa Bay as a potential sleeper, we can’t blame you because we do, too. We just don’t see New Orleans slipping from a team that should have won 10.5 games last year, according to the numbers, all the way to 7.5.
(Photo of Kyler Murray: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
