If the last seven days will be remembered as Liverpool’s most disappointing week of the season, featuring a Champions League exit and League Cup final defeat, then perhaps we should have seen it coming.
It was after two defeats in 11 days earlier this year, when Arne Slot’s fringe players lost a Champions League dead rubber at PSV and then an FA Cup fourth-round tie at Plymouth Argyle, that the head coach seems to have lost trust in them.
Five season-defining games in 15 days followed and while the results during that hectic run helped tilt the Premier League firmly in Liverpool’s favour, relying on a small group of trusted regulars was always going to place strain on their staying power. Sure enough, cracks have appeared in the squad.
Here, The Athletic digs deeper into Liverpool’s season to understand why they are now looking so jaded in the middle of March for a second year running.
A lack of rotation
When Slot was asked about Liverpool’s “injury luck” compared to others this season, he fired back by discussing the excellent work going on behind the scenes from his staff and the players to avoid injuries.
He also pointed out that Liverpool have still had to deal with mid-to-long-term injuries this season, most notably to Alisson, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Conor Bradley, Ibrahima Konate, Joe Gomez, Kostas Tsimikas and Diogo Jota.
Liverpool’s fitness record has been much improved from last season when former manager Jurgen Klopp was forced to turn to youngsters to win the Carabao Cup and stay in the title race. Slot and his staff, including lead physical performance coach Ruben Peeters, have been rightly praised for their management of players and the methods they have implemented.
The net effect, however, is that a core group of players has potentially been overplayed. Perversely, the lack of injuries has meant many players have not had any break from football, while playing in the Champions League (Liverpool were in the Europa League last season), has given Slot fewer opportunities to rotate.
Here are the minutes played from last season…
… compared to this season.
With 810 minutes left to be played this season, 10 Liverpool players are likely to pass the 3,000-minute mark in all competitions compared to seven last season. Injuries can influence this, of course, but more has been asked of certain players than last season. Ryan Gravenberch is the obvious example, having nearly doubled his minutes tally already.
The difference is noticeable in the balance of the chart. Liverpool had 10 players who played between 2,000 and 3,000 minutes in 2023-24. If we predict Alisson and upwards will play through the majority of the remaining minutes this term, a maximum of six players could finish in that zone – and that includes back-up goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher and left-back Tsimikas.
There have been fewer enforced changes or rotation in the starting line-up. Only Nottingham Forest (23) have used fewer players than Liverpool this season (24).
While they rank joint-seventh for their average number of changes made to a starting XI per game (1.8), they have made the fewest of the teams playing in European competition. Of that group, Liverpool are the only side to be averaging fewer than two changes per game.
Teams like Brentford and Everton, for example, have not had to consistently play in midweek, and neither had prolonged cup runs. For those teams, rotation and fitness management has been less of an issue.
A draining sequence of games
From the early stages of the Champions League group phase, Liverpool were odds-on to finish in the top eight and avoid the play-off round, thus giving them two free weeks in February.
While they did finish top, any hopes of more rest and recovery were ended due to the scheduling of two league games in slots Liverpool thought they had avoided. The postponed Merseyside derby against Everton from December was moved to February 12, and their fixture against Aston Villa was brought forward to February 19 after they progressed to the Carabao Cup final.
Five league games in 15 days felt like a season-defining run. Liverpool put everything into it, winning three times — over Wolverhampton Wanderers, Manchester City and Newcastle United — and drew against Everton and Aston Villa. Liverpool’s 11 points from a possible 15 was coupled with Arsenal slipping up in their three fixtures and Slot’s team extended their lead at the top.
Was it a price worth paying? It certainly tightened Liverpool’s grip on the title but a lot was asked of Slot’s regulars during that run. Seven outfield players — Virgil van Dijk, Konate, Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai and Mohamed Salah — started every game.
Dominik Szoboszlai has been heavily used this season (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
Since that run ended, it has looked like the effects of such a physically demanding schedule are being felt. There was no let-up in the Champions League, where Liverpool were unfortunate to draw Paris Saint-Germain in the last 16. Slot had reason to feel hard done by, having finished top of the group phase.
Even against PSG in the second leg at Anfield, when Liverpool did manage to up their intensity, they were unable to maintain it during extra time and seemed happy to get to penalties as Luis Enrique’s side grew stronger.
Starting with the Everton game, Liverpool have lost the duel battle to their opponents in all but one game — the 2-0 home victory over Newcastle in the Premier League, a match where Eddie Howe admitted the visitors “did not want to show our hand” tactically.
It is not a statistic that always defines results, but given Slot’s emphasis on duels throughout the season, it is a clear concern.
Little faith in fringe players
Defeats by PSV and Plymouth were initially cast aside as bumps in the road, but in hindsight there was greater significance.
Jarell Quansah, Tsimikas, Wataru Endo, Harvey Elliott and Federico Chiesa were called upon in both games but there were few signs, if any, to suggest they were ready to make an impact when it really mattered.
Elliott, to his credit, did have a big moment when he replaced Salah and scored with his first touch away at PSG and Quansah’s versatility has also proved useful. Endo is a useful substitute, too, and has helped close out games but would Liverpool really miss any of these players if they were replaced this summer?
Harvey Elliott has struggled for minutes (Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)
For so much of this season, Liverpool were preventing injuries and managing the loads of players so well that they almost didn’t need to turn to those in reserve. Yet the performances over the past few weeks, and the inability to juggle every competition with strong, different starting XIs, has underlined the need for change this summer.
It is not a knee-jerk reaction, either, as this same group of players started to fade away at a similar stage last season. The only difference now is their lead at the top of the table has been stretched from three points to 12 points with one, not two teams chasing them down.
Whether a clinical striker would have made a difference in the Champions League and Carabao Cup remains to be seen but that surely has to be the area of priority this summer given the poor records of Luis Diaz, Darwin Nunez and Jota in recent months.
The conundrum of fitting another top-level midfielder into the squad may also be difficult when it comes to sharing the minutes, but it is needed for the greater good of the team. The chance to freshen up the midfield with not only Curtis Jones but another plug-in-and-play alternative would take the burden off the overworked Gravenberch, Mac Allister and Szoboszlai. Endo, who has not started a Premier League game this season, is not the answer.
Who deserves more of a chance?
Slot and his staff have a break to reset and rethink before Liverpool’s league campaign recommences against Everton on April 2.
With nine league games to go, an early exit from the Champions League means there will be more recovery time between matches. That may mean the policy of limiting rotation will continue, yet Liverpool’s recent issues are more than just physical.
The misfiring forward line looks ripe for a shake-up, with Chiesa the obvious example of a player who may have earned the right to more minutes after his goalscoring cameo at Wembley (his first appearance since the FA Cup exit against Plymouth). Slot’s decision to introduce Cody Gakpo, who has looked short of fitness in both games after his injury lay-off, pointed to the summer signing’s lowly position in the pecking order.
Federico Chiesa impressed off the bench against Newcastle (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
Referring back to the above table of minutes played, the drop in playing time for both Endo and Elliott has been stark, with the latter particularly unfortunate to not be more involved.
Strengthening midfield options has risen up the to-do list and despite both making important contributions off the bench at points during the campaign, it suggests they are not stylistically right for Slot.
This is likely all linked to when Liverpool will win the league. Until then, Slot is likely to stick with those he has favoured; after, others may get their chance to prove they deserve a place in his plans next season.
(Top photo: Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
