Every team left it all on the field for seventeen games during the regular season which means fourteen teams move on to the NFL Playoffs which get started this weekend. Wild Card Weekend starts Saturday and runs all the way to Monday and after it’s all said and done, eight teams will have their dream alive to win a Super Bowl.
If you haven’t seen, we broke down why each AFC team will or won’t win the Super Bowl here, and now it’s time to look at the seven teams remaining in the NFC. The NFC certainly has elite teams at the top similarly to the AFC, but the wild card teams are a bit stronger so we may see some fireworks this weekend.
Let’s get started:
Detroit Lions
Current Super Bowl Odds: 22.4%
Why they will win the Super Bowl
Because the offense has been historically efficient. Since 2002, the Lions rank fourth in points per drive behind the 2007 Patriots — yeah, that team — the 2018 Chiefs and the 2020 Packers. Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers is some pretty good company to be mentioned with in the same breath. Since Week 4, Detroit has scored 30 or more points in ten of their fourteen games. In fact, in those fourteen games, they’ve scored 40 or more points in six games while scoring less than 30 points just four times. This offense is really, really good. Their lowest point total of the season (16) came back in Week 2 versus the Bucs, also happens to be one of their two losses, where they happened to score one time in seven red zone possessions. Their other loss occurred by scoring 42 points.
Why they won’t
Because of that last sentence. The Lions have been gutted with injuries on defense this season and I have concerns if that unit can hold up for three games against the league’s best to win a Super Bowl. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has kept this unit afloat and is off their best performance of the season in the pivotal Week 18 win against the Vikings to clinch the NFC North and a first round bye. Despite the injuries, the Lions rank 10th in EPA per play and seventh in defensive success rate according to TruMedia. However, those injuries started to pile up around Thanksgiving, and it’s shown. Since Week 14 the Lions rank 31st in EPA per play and 23rd in success rate. Part of that has to do with a tough schedule, yes, but the path to a Super Bowl will only be tougher.
GO DEEPER
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Philadelphia Eagles
Current Super Bowl Odds: 10.9%
Why they will win the Super Bowl
After a rocky start to the season, the defense has been awesome. During their 2-2 start to the season, the Eagles gave up 22 or more points in three of their four games. In their remaining thirteen games, they’ve only given up that amount twice. Maybe it took some time for the scheme to really get cooking under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio but there aren’t many doubts on the defensive side of the ball for this Eagles team. Since the 2-2 start, the Eagles rank first in EPA per play, defensive success rate, and percentage of plays that go for 10 or more yards. But maybe the most impressive stat to me is that they rank fourth in pressure rate despite blitzing at the third-lowest rate in the league. Generating pressure without sending extra rushers makes you awfully difficult to move the ball against.
Why they won’t
I have questions about the passing offense. Against the best of the best, can this Eagles passing offense and Jalen Hurts get it done? Hurts ranks 17th among qualified quarterbacks in dropback success rate and 21st in EPA per play when facing pressure. The Eagles offensive line is fine but they do give up a ton of pressure due to Hurts’ ability to use his legs and create time in the pocket. But the NFC playoff teams are also very good at generating pressure. The Rams are the worst among the six other NFC teams and they’re right around league average. Everyone else is either 13th or better including three teams in the top 10. If the passing offense starts to sputter, I’m not sure they’re able to survive by leaning on their defense.
Minnesota Vikings
Current Super Bowl Odds: 5.2%
Why they will win the Super Bowl
Because of complimentary football. The Vikings have a great tandem in head coach Kevin O’Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores. I think they’ve gotten more out of this roster than anyone could have seen coming into the year. At times, the offense has looked so good that Sam Darnold is now the hottest free agent this offseason, while the defense has been a thorn in quarterbacks sides with Flores’ relentless blitzing (Minnesota leads the league in blitz percentage). I don’t necessarily think either of these units are elite but I’m so bullish on O’Connell and Flores that I think they can cook up some of the best game plans for four games and make a run.
Why they won’t
I didn’t mention any metrics for the Vikings above because there aren’t a ton that stand out to me. The offense and defense have both been good but I don’t think either unit is elite. On the defensive side of the ball, the Vikings rank 12th in EPA per play since Week 12 but my concern is that they rank 26th in defensive success rate. As for the offense, I do think Darnold is a little overrated. He’s been much better than expected but ranking 16th and 13th in EPA per dropback and success rate respectively doesn’t give me a ton of hope for a long playoff run. Then add in the fact that he’s 20th and 19th in the same metrics on third and fourth down this year. If the defense takes a step back, I don’t think Darnold is good enough to carry this team through the NFC.
GO DEEPER
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current Super Bowl Odds: 4.7%
Why they will win the Super Bowl
Because the defense is getting healthy, especially in the secondary by getting Antoine Winfield Jr. back. If you look at the whole season, the Bucs rank below average in just about every defensive metric you can find. Since they went on their run to the playoffs in Week 12 (6-1 record), though, their defense ranks third is EPA per play, fourth in success rate, and second in percentage of plays that go for no gain or a loss. Sure, the schedule hasn’t been the toughest but they’ve played extremely well without their best defensive player for most of that stretch. If Winfield can take this defense to another level, the Bucs are going to be a problem in the NFC. After all, they do have wins against both the Lions and Eagles this season.
Why they won’t
The six wins in seven games since Week 12 is a little bit of Fool’s gold. The Bucs did dismantle the playoff-bound Chargers but outside of that, they played the Giants, Panthers twice, Raiders, Cowboys, and Saints. All of those teams except for the Cowboys will be drafting inside the top nine picks in the NFL Draft in April and Dallas is picking 12th. How much has that inflated their metrics as we head into the playoffs? My NFL Projection Model adjusts for opponent and has the Bucs as a top-10 offense but just a slightly above average defense. I project them as the fifth-best team in the NFC which makes me question what their ceiling really is.
Green Bay Packers
Current Super Bowl Odds: 3.0%
Why they will win the Super Bowl
Since Jordan Love returned from his knee injury suffered in the season-opening game against the Eagles, the Packers have been the sixth-best offense when it comes to points per drive, and Love has been a borderline top-10 QB by EPA per play and dropback success rate per TruMedia. If Love can take his play to the next level (assuming he has a healthy right elbow), the Packers can overcome their woes against the league’s best — the Packers are 2-5 against playoff teams this year, 9-1 versus everyone else — and win it all.
Why they won’t
Because Love has struggled on third and fourth down this season. I mentioned above that Love was a borderline top-10 quarterback from Week 4 onward. The issue is that during that same timeframe, Love ranks 30th and 31st out of 35 qualified quarterbacks on third and fourth downs in EPA per dropback and dropback success rate per TruMedia. That’s a drastic difference in efficiency and no matter how it plays out in the playoffs, your quarterback has to carry the load and make the winning plays. Love hasn’t made enough of those this year and it shows against good competition.
GO DEEPER
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Los Angeles Rams
Current Super Bowl Odds: 2.8%
Why they will win the Super Bowl
Because Puka Nacua is awesome. Nacua returned from injury against the Vikings in Week 8 and the Rams went 8-2 with wins over the Vikings and Bills after starting the year 2-5 — in which he missed six of those games. Since his return, Nacua leads all wide receivers in yards per route (3.65) and is tied for first in EPA per route (0.21) — all while leading the league in targets per route at 38.9%. The next best receiver is CeeDee Lamb at 32.0%. It’s safe to say that the Rams offense hums when Nacua is on the field and that allows Matthew Stafford to play like a top-10 quarterback. Can they have another run like 2021? Absolutely. But it all starts with Nacua for this Rams’ offense.
Why they won’t
Despite Nacua’s brilliance, there are too many sluggish games for the Rams. Poor showings against the Dolphins, Saints, and 49ers down the stretch make me wonder if they can string together four straight games like they did in 2021. I have no doubt that when the Rams are firing on all cylinders that they can beat anyone in the league (see the Bills game) but the up and down performances week to week make me wonder if they’re just not consistent enough to end up on top.
Washington Commanders
Current Super Bowl Odds: 1.4%
Why they will win the Super Bowl
Because the defense finds a way to be an average unit during the run to New Orleans. The Commanders rank 24th in EPA per play on defense and 21st in success rate. On top of that, against playoff teams they’ve ranked 29th in EPA per play but 11th in success rate. Maybe that success rate number means there is a path to some resistance for this defensive unit. But to make a Super Bowl run, they’ll need to find that path and ride it as long as they can.
Why they won’t
Over the second half of the season, the Commanders’ offense took a step back in terms of efficiency and it can be correlated towards Jayden Daniels’ rib injury. Before Week 8, the Commanders ranked first in points per drive but after they dropped to 12th. Still a respectable number and shows just how good Daniels has been in his rookie campaign but whether you want to say it was Daniels’ injury or defenses adjusting, the Commanders need the offense to be in early season form to have postseason success. Call me skeptical, though, as I think it’s more likely they stay outside the top 10 as an offense against the league’s best.
(Photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
