DALLAS — In the open space of the Hilton Anatole on Monday morning, one scout put it succinctly.
“Fifteen,” the scout said, “is a lot.”
Indeed, 15 years is a long time to project the production of a major-league player — the longest contract in major-league history, in fact. So what does history tell us about how Juan Soto might age over the next 15 years?
To get a sense of this, we looked at the players whose early career production aligned most closely with Soto’s through their age-25 seasons. How did those players perform over the next five seasons (when Soto can trigger an opt-out in his deal) and over the next 15?
Since integration, Soto ranks 10th in wins above replacement through his age-25 season (according to Baseball Reference). So our sample includes the nine guys ahead of him (starting with Mike Trout) and the 10 guys behind him (ending with Willie Mays).
Over the next five seasons, through their age-30 seasons, those players averaged 32 WAR — or more than six wins above replacement per season. The best of them was Mays, who averaged a shade under nine WAR over those five years; the worst was outfielder César Cedeño, who averaged three WAR from age-26 to age-30 and then was essentially done as a useful major-leaguer.
Over the next 15 years, the sample averaged 58 wins above replacement, or just under four per season. In proportional terms, they contributed 171 percent more WAR from 26 to 40 than they’d accumulated through age-25. In other words, you’d expect Soto with his 36 wins above replacement to be worth about 62 WAR between now and the end of his contract in 2039.
In that case, the Mets would end up spending about $12.3 million per win above replacement — hardly much of an overpay based on the current market for free agents.
Again, Mays was the best here, being worth 378 percent more WAR after age-25 than before. Barry Bonds came in at 367 percent more, while Cedeño, Vada Pinson and Andruw Jones experienced the harshest drop-offs. (Trout, Mookie Betts and Manny Machado are all still playing, so they’re not part of the sample past the age of 30.)
Of course, different players achieve their value in different ways. Cedeño was a speedster capable of bashing 20 homers and stealing 50 bases while playing a Gold Glove center field. Jones was as talented a defender at a premium position as anyone in his generation. Hank Aaron was a corner outfielder who hit .300 and hammered 30-plus homers year after year.
The player on the list who might look the most like Soto is Frank Robinson. Robinson posted 37.3 WAR through age-25 to Soto’s 36.4; his career OPS was .946 to Soto’s .953. Soto’s OPS+ is a bit better, 160 to 146, and Robinson’s glove in an outfield corner was stronger; he won a Gold Glove in 1958.
Robinson averaged close to seven wins above replacement from age-26 to age-30, and he averaged more than five wins above replacement from age-26 through age-38. In all, he was worth 70 WAR after the age of 25. The Mets would jump at that sustained production from Soto. (In franchise history, only Tom Seaver has compiled more than 50 wins above replacement as a Met, ending his career with 76 WAR for New York.)
In general, scouts are bullish on Soto’s bat aging well.
“Offensively, the skill set will always be there,” one said. “Even if there’s a power drop-off, sort of like what happened with Joey Votto, the plate discipline will always be there. The ability to hit will always be there.”
“At his best, he reminds me of Bonds with what we like to call ‘controlled aggression,’” said another. “He’s as good a hitter and as good at knowing what to do with certain pitches as I’ve seen since Bonds.”
They are less sure about Soto’s defense, noting it’s when and not if he’ll make a position change, and wondering if he can make it to anywhere but DH.
“As long as the body holds up and keeps him in the outfield in some capacity,” one scout said, “I am sure he will be fine for a while.”
“I think he’s a bad defender,” said another. “And in right field, that can cost you. In the future, can he play first base?”
“At his age, a lot depends on how he widens out,” said a third scout. “Does he keep it together pretty well?”
(Photo of Juan Soto getting a birthday cupcake from Ozzie Albies: Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images)
