Vikings mailbag: Trade deadline thoughts, Dallas Turner's start, special teams and more

It’s the bye week, so the Minnesota Vikings are out and about.

Head coach Kevin O’Connell tossed out the first pitch at a San Diego Padres-Los Angeles Dodgers game earlier this week. Saturday, quarterback Sam Darnold will lead the USC Trojans out of the tunnel as they face Penn State. The detachment is necessary after a grueling and impressive five-game start to the NFL season.

Soon, the coaches and players will return to Minnesota for a pivotal post-bye matchup against the Detroit Lions. Before then, here are some answers to your mailbag questions. Thank you to those who took the time to ask!

Note: Some questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.

Is there any indication that the Vikings will be big-time buyers at the trade deadline? — Chase A.

Not yet.

This year’s trade deadline is Nov. 5, Election Day, and right after the Vikings’ Week 9 matchup with the Indianapolis Colts. By then, the health of the roster will probably matter integrally to the decision-making. Besides Aaron Jones, who O’Connell said Tuesday is “week to week” with a hip injury, the roster is mostly healthy. And the health will improve with the eventual returns of tight end T.J. Hockenson and guard Dalton Risner.

During general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s tenure, he has not let a trade deadline go by without making a move. In 2022, the Vikings swung big for Hockenson. Last year, they fortified their quarterback position with Josh Dobbs. We should expect something. The question is how aggressive they’ll get with a minimal bundle of picks in the 2025 NFL Draft. Losing any key defensive contributor could lead to some tire-kicking, and Jones’ health is another spot to watch. Broadly, though, the staff is satisfied with the roster depth.

Coach O’Connell gives an injury update pic.twitter.com/bpQbbOtA5S

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 8, 2024

What’s the latest on Dallas Turner’s development? — Marty L.

Let’s start with the statistics. Turner has played 77 defensive snaps this year, according to Pro Football Focus. He has one sack, two hurries and a 7 percent pressure rate. For reference, the average NFL pressure rate is 10.1 percent. And here is how Turner stacks up among notable rookie edge rushers:

Alongside his counterparts, Turner’s numbers won’t inspire major confidence, but some context is critical. Before the season, defensive coordinator Brian Flores was clear: He would ride the hot hand with the pass rush. Edge rusher Patrick Jones II had arrived at training camp in exceptional condition, and Jihad Ward had already situated himself as one of the defense’s vocal leaders. Minnesota would not hand a full-time job to Turner simply because he was a first-round pick.

Flores followed the plan. Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Jones and Ward all have higher pressure rates than Turner, so they have gotten the lion’s share of the snaps. Turner fits the traditional edge rusher spot — the positions Greenard and Van Ginkel play. Right now, though, who in their right mind would limit either of their snaps? Van Ginkel has turned edge rusher interceptions into expectations, and Greenard’s 29 pressures rank second in the NFL behind only Aidan Hutchinson.

The point is that Turner has not played enough for any grand evaluation, and he hasn’t played because the folks in front of him have been so effective that the Vikings have had no reason to replace them.

“Gink is insane!! Gink is insane yooo!!!” @blockayyy‘s reaction was just like ours.

📺: https://t.co/9DScmhxYDa pic.twitter.com/xdCyawM8Cp

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 9, 2024

What, if any, changes might we see on special teams coming out of the bye week? — Jeffrey G.

Interestingly, the Vikings’ special teams unit ranks 11th in DVOA, a statistic that accounts for strength of schedule. Their expected points added via special teams also rank 11th in the NFL. C.J. Ham’s blocked punt against the San Francisco 49ers is incorporated in these rankings, and it helped that Green Bay Packers kicker Brayden Narveson missed two field goals. In general, though, the question is apt.

Minnesota has committed special teams penalties, six on punts. Former fourth-round picks Jay Ward and Akayleb Evans have been dinged for three of those six. Ward struggled as a gunner in 2023, and Evans has not been viable on special teams since Minnesota drafted him. Had NaJee Thompson’s knee injury not sidelined him for the season, one of them would occupy a different role.

The Vikings knew this spot would be a concern, and it is underscored by the fact they were exploring gunner additions around roster cutdown day. If there is an obvious change to make, it’s here, but anything short of an external addition would likely leave Minnesota in a similar spot.

As for potential schematic adjustments, Minnesota has limited opponents to the third-fewest yards per punt return. Disposing of the penalties must be the unit’s No. 1 priority.

Alec, what would your “self-scout” look like for this team? — Daron W.

I usually start with a scan of the metrics that most prominently predict winning: turnovers, explosive plays, offensive and defensive efficiency and red zone scoring. Here is where the Vikings rank in each of these categories, according to TruMedia:

The initial takeaways? If it weren’t for the defense’s proclivity to take away the ball, we’d be talking much more about the ball control issues on offense. Since the beginning of 2023, the Vikings have committed 43 turnovers, an astronomical number that’s tied with the Cleveland Browns for most in the NFL. Minnesota’s defense might be good enough to keep confounding quarterbacks, but if the turnover well runs dry and the Vikings offense continues to give away the ball, the positivity surrounding this 5-0 team will fade into oblivion.

None of the other rankings causes grave concern, so I’d dig deeper underneath the hood to identify any warning signs.

One noticeable trend is the Vikings’ frequent usage of quarters coverage on early downs. On nearly 36 percent of snaps, according to TruMedia, the Vikings are deploying quarters, which generally means four deep defenders across the field. Flores might already be getting ahead of this tendency, though. Against the New York Jets, that number dropped to around 15 percent.

Offensively, the Vikings run game still leaves a little to be desired, especially with Jones on the sideline. Minnesota has run the ball 44 times without Jones, and those rushes have averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. Twenty-five percent of them have gone for zero or negative yards. Both of those metrics are well below average.

Will Hockenson’s return change the Vikings’ run-pass ratio? If it doesn’t, are there enough passes available to keep Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor and Hockenson happy and productive? — Brian J.

Minnesota’s run-pass ratio was essentially the same in O’Connell’s first two seasons. The Vikings passed on 64 percent of their snaps in 2022 and 63.3 percent in ’23. No team passed more often than Minnesota in that span.

This year, the Vikings are passing at about a 52 percent clip, considerably lower than the past couple of years. The shift is most stark on first down.

If anything, Hockenson’s return would make it more difficult for O’Connell to refrain from passing. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing. If Jones misses any extended period and Chandler cannot fill Jones’ void, Hockenson’s availability could offer more options on early downs. As for keeping Jefferson, Addison, Nailor and Hockenson happy, none of the three cares more about his own numbers than winning. That is just one of the many qualities that make Jefferson so special.

GO DEEPER

Vic’s Picks, Week 6: Taking CeeDee Lamb’s advice about perseverance

Is there any chance Risner will replace Ed Ingram? — Matt E.

Yes, but the Vikings aren’t just going to hand him Ingram’s job. Though Ingram has accounted for the second-most pressures in the league among guards, he has been an effective run blocker. Risner’s back must allow him to play, and if that happens, he must prove he can handle the right guard spot. Right tackle Brian O’Neill commended Ingram’s communication ability a couple of weeks ago, so the continuity is a factor, too.

Is there any chance the Vikings will draft a running back this spring in the first round? — Gerald E. 

Plenty of other positions probably take precedence: cornerback, interior of the offensive line, interior of the defensive line, etc.

But never say never. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs were of interest in the 2023 draft, and this year’s class has at least one potential star in Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty. It’s early to be talking draft, but who is to say the Vikings won’t move their first-round pick for a couple of additional selections later, opening more shots to fire on positions like this one?

What’s O’Connell’s message to the team when it reassembles at TCO next week? — Trace F.

After a quick reiteration about turnovers, he’ll probably say what he has said all along to the team: that its weekly focus needs to be on playing for the teammate sitting near their left shoulder and the chip sitting on the shoulder to their right.

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(Photo of Dallas Turner: Nick Cammett / Getty Images)