European football is nearing the end of the season with all three continental competitions in the semifinals starting on Tuesday. Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain are favored to make the Champions League final, but the field is relatively wide open at this stage.
Madrid survived defending champion Manchester City in penalty kicks in the quarterfinals and has inherited the top spot in the odds to win the competition. Los Merengues are the favorite to win the competition at +138 on BetMGM, which shows Madrid is not a dominant favorite. PSG is next up at +240 with Bayern Munich at +275 and Borussia Dortmund at +800.
This week, both semifinals are in Germany. Madrid travels to Munich on Tuesday while PSG heads to Dortmund on Wednesday. The Europa League and Europa Conference League semifinals all start on Thursday.
Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid
Odds to advance: Madrid -185, Bayern +130
As two of the biggest clubs in the world, these two have a history of running into one another in the Champions League. Most recently, Madrid got the upper head in a semifinal in 2018 and has advanced past the Germans the past three times they’ve met in the knockout stage (2017 quarterfinals, 2014 semifinals). Bayern did knock out Madrid in the 2012 semifinals.
Bayern has been knocked down from its perch at the top of the Bundesliga but has been sturdy in the Champions League. This isn’t the best Bayern team by any stretch. In fact, it might be one of the worst in recent years. But it’s still a talented squad that has enough on paper to challenge Madrid.
Madrid is on the verge of clinching the title in La Liga with just one loss in league play. Los Merengues are undefeated in the Champions League, but the knockout stage has been tight. After a 6-0 showing in group play, RB Leipzig made the Madrid fans very worried in a 2-1 aggregate Round of 16. Then it took penalties to get past Manchester City in the quarterfinals.
But of the four remaining teams in the competition, it’s clear Madrid is having the best season. PSG has been dominant in France but has taken a few losses in the Champions League. Madrid is going for its 15th Champions League title and sixth in the last 11 years.
From the Bayern side, it’s hard not to think of the Harry Kane storyline. Kane left Tottenham, where he was unable to win any trophies, to join a Bayern club known for winning trophies. The Champions League is the last chance for Kane to avoid being a part of Bayern’s first trophy-less season in over a decade.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Paris Saint-Germain
Odds to advance: PSG -275, Dortmund +200
This is a rematch from group play in a nasty group that also featured Milan and Newcastle. Dortmund won the group while PSG only got in on goal differential ahead of Milan.
Despite how the group finished, PSG won the head-to-head. The Parisians won 2-0 at home and drew 1-1 in Germany, although Dortmund had already clinched a spot in the knockout round by then.
Dortmund hasn’t had a good season in the Bundesliga, sitting fifth in the table. At this point, it would take a Champions League trophy or Germany getting one of the extra spots in next year’s Champions League (which does seem likely) to get back to the competition next season. Despite that, Dortmund is still here, surviving a tough group and coming back twice against Atlético Madrid in a crazy quarterfinal second leg.
The Germans are underdogs against PSG, but this PSG team has been up and down in Europe. Even after laboring through group play, PSG ultimately needed a red card in the second leg at Barcelona to come back from a two-goal aggregate deficit.
Any team with Kylian Mbappé is a threat and he is also a -250 favorite to finish as top scorer in the competition. Could he take on Madrid in a Champions League final and then play for the club next season?
The high goal total suggests this one could be fun. Both teams have scored in eight of PSG’s 11 Champions League matches this season. Dortmund even somehow got notoriously defensive Atlético into a high-scoring quarterfinal with nine goals over those two matches.
Europa League odds
The Europa League has some extra intrigue this season because Bayer Leverkusen has been one of the best stories in the sport. Bayer is having a magical season in many ways. Not only has Bayer already clinched its first-ever Bundesliga title and is still undefeated across all competitions, but the team has been persistent in scoring late goals to keep that undefeated run going.
Leverkusen came back from 2-0 down in both Round of 16 matches against Qarabag. In the first leg away, Bayer scored in the 70th and 92nd minutes to leave with a 2-2 draw. In the return leg at home, Bayer was down 2-0 after the 70th minute but scored in the 72nd, 93rd and 97th minutes. While those comebacks may be the most impressive of the bunch, Leverkusen trailed in six of its 13 matches in March and April but managed to get nine wins and four draws.
A couple of weeks after the Qarabag comebacks, Bayer needed goals in the 88th and 91st minutes to beat Hoffenheim in the league. Bayer scored in the 83rd and 91st minutes of the first leg of the Europa League quarterfinal against West Ham to win 2-0 and then used an 89th-minute equalizer in the second leg in London to seal a spot in the semifinals. Just over a week ago, it was a 97th-minute equalizer at Dortmund. This past weekend, Bayer was down 2-0 again and came back for a 2-2 draw against Stuttgart, with the equalizer coming in the 96th minute.
It’s a run so silly it makes you wonder if we’re all watching a team controlled by someone playing a video game and turning down the difficulty mid-game to avoid losing.
That run has Leverkusen heavily favored to win the Europa League. The German club has a chance at a treble, with the German cup final still to come.
The opposition is a Roma club that is one of the last to beat Bayer. These two teams met in the Europa League semifinals last year as well with Roma winning the first leg 1-0 and then enduring a 0-0 draw in Germany in classic Jose Mourinho fashion. Mourinho is gone and new manager Daniele De Rossi has the team playing a more attacking style.
Leverkusen is -400 (1-to-4) to advance with Roma at +275 (11-to-3). In the other semifinal, another Italian club, Atalanta, is favored at -225 (2-to-9) against Marseille (+160, 8-to-5).
Europa Conference League odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
|
Aston Villa |
+100 |
|
Fiorentina |
+160 |
|
Club Brugge |
+700 |
|
Olympiacos |
+900 |
The lone remaining English team in Europe is Aston Villa and the club is responsible for England’s slim chances of getting a fifth spot in next season’s Champions League. Villa is on track to get into the Champions League while sitting in fourth place in the Premier League, but is also the favorite for this competition at even money.
Villa is up against Greek club Olympiacos in one of Thursday’s semifinals. Fiorentina, last season’s runner-up in this competition, is up against Belgian team Club Brugge. The odds favor an Aston Villa-Fiorentina final.
(Photo of Kylian Mbappé: Clive Brunskill / Getty Images)
