This Week in Mets: For the Mets, it all goes through Atlanta — as it should

“What twisted people we are. How simple we seem, or pretend to be in front of others, and how twisted we are deep down. How paltry we are and how spectacularly we contort ourselves before our own eyes and the eyes of others. And all for what? To hide what? To make people believe what?”
—“2666,” Roberto Bolaño

This is how it should be.

After their dramatic 2-1 win over the Phillies on Sunday night, the Mets’ path toward a playoff berth is simple.

Go to Atlanta, defeat the long-reigning Final Boss of the National League East, exorcise some lasting franchise demons, and pop champagne in the visiting clubhouse at Truist Park by taking two of three.

Treat this as the first playoff series of the autumn. Yes, thanks to a 6-1 homestand capped by an outstanding series against the Phillies, the Mets have provided themselves something of a cushion. With just one win in Atlanta, New York would still control its destiny over the weekend in Milwaukee — at a time when the Brewers are unlikely to be playing for anything. (Atlanta hosts the Royals in the final series of the year, and Kansas City will surprisingly have a lot on the line in that series, though that’s because it’s playing poorly.)

This, of course, is the exact same scenario the Mets were presented with two seasons ago. Go to Atlanta for the penultimate series of the year, clinch the division with two wins or control your own destiny with one. Instead, they were swept that weekend and eliminated the following one in front of less than a packed house at Citi Field.

And September series in Atlanta have long haunted the Mets.

For closer Edwin Díaz and the rest of the Mets, the playoffs essentially start on Tuesday against the Braves. (Gregory Fisher / Imagn Images)

Since 1997, the Mets are 26-44 after Sept. 1 in Atlanta, including the postseason. When the Mets are above .500, they’re 13-26. When both teams are above .500, New York is 5-21. (It doesn’t quite feel this way, but the Mets are 19-9 in home games against Atlanta in the same sample.)

“You’d go into that clubhouse and you’d get all the ghosts of the previous losses,” former Mets GM Steve Phillips told me a few years back.

That history, 2022 excluded, belongs more to the fan bases than to the players actually on the field. And the Mets have a few things going for them this year that they typically haven’t when making the trip.

The first is momentum. The ’22 squad was hanging on to the division lead by a thread while Atlanta had played lights-out baseball since the start of June. That context is reversed this year: It’s been the Mets who have been baseball’s best team since the end of May. And it’s New York that has all the positive vibes on its side.

Second, the Mets have the lead going in. Outside of 2022, that has seldom been the case for their important late-season meetings. (The Mets were also ahead of Atlanta in 2007 when they swept a road series there in the opening days of September.)

And third, the Mets are a different team in one really important area, which showed itself on Sunday night: They hit a lot more home runs. If you remember two things from that series sweep, they’re that the Mets starters were hit hard and that they were hit hard by home runs. Atlanta hit seven home runs to New York’s three. Over half the runs in the series scored on long balls, and that’s where Atlanta held a huge edge all season: In 2022, it hit a league-leading 243 home runs; the Mets were below the league average at 171. The Mets would have needed to add 2001 Barry Bonds to catch Atlanta in homers.

In 2024, Atlanta has 206 homers and the Mets have 202. Hitting a home run — say in the seventh inning to break a 1-1 tie against a very good starting pitcher — is one of the best ways to win important games late in the regular season and into the postseason.

Which, again, essentially starts Tuesday. The Mets have lined up their best arms, as has Atlanta. It shouldn’t be any other way.

The exposition

The Mets won a thriller Sunday night over the Phillies to take three of four in the series and move into a tie with Arizona while building a two-game lead over Atlanta for a postseason spot. New York is 87-69.

Atlanta took two of three from the Marlins, finishing its six-game swing through Cincinnati and Miami with a 4-2 record. At 85-71, it sits two games behind the Mets and Diamondbacks for a wild-card spot.

Milwaukee came back Sunday to salvage the finale of a four-game home set with those Diamondbacks. It represented a real missed opportunity for the Brewers to make up ground on the Phillies for a first-round bye. Instead, at 89-67, they’re three behind Philadelphia with six games to go.

The pitching possibles

at Atlanta

RHP Luis Severino (11-6, 3.79 ERA) v. RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (7-7, 3.61 ERA)
LHP David Peterson (9-3, 3.08) v. LHP Chris Sale (18-3, 2.38)
LHP Sean Manaea (12-5, 3.29) v. LHP Max Fried (10-10, 3.42)

at Milwaukee

LHP Jose Quintana (10-9, 3.74) v. RHP Colin Rea (12-5, 4.20)
RHP Tylor Megill (4-5, 3.98) v. RHP Frankie Montas (7-11, 4.50)
RHP Luis Severino v. RHP Tobias Myers (8-6, 3.05)

Inside baseball

José Iglesias chuckled for a second. What was he doing this time last year?

“I don’t remember,” he said. “Probably singing?”

That checks out. Iglesias spent the 2023 season out of baseball, unhappy but accepting of the idea his big-league career may have been over. Instead, after signing a minor-league deal with the Mets last December, the 34-year-old has enjoyed the most fruitful season of his baseball life.

Since coming up at the end of May, he’s been a sparkplug with his energy, a .300 hitter, a postgame musical artist, and one of the most memorable parts of an increasingly memorable Mets season. His role has only grown of late, with the injury to Jeff McNeil thrusting Iglesias into everyday action and Francisco Lindor’s back injury pushing him to the leadoff spot.

Last week, I caught up with Iglesias for an abbreviated Q&A.

How worried were you last year that you would not get another opportunity like this?

I was very disappointed. I don’t think the word is worried. I was not worried. I had an amazing career. I was very blessed for everything I’ve done and I don’t regret anything in my career at all. I played over a decade and played well. I was very disappointed and upset about not getting an opportunity to play the game I love. The Mets saw a fit, they gave me a shot and an opportunity, and I’m grabbing it with two hands.

You’ve played a long time, but it’s been a while since you played a playoff game. (Iglesias last played in the postseason with the 2013 Tigers.) How much would you like to be in that atmosphere again and playing a big role for this team?

That’s the reason you play. The playoffs are special. A lot of guys in the room have not experienced that. When they get a taste of it, you become addicted to it. I definitely miss being in the playoffs. It’s special, man. It’s special to be in the playoffs. It’s the type of atmosphere you want to be in.

How strange has it been to be this long? That Tigers team was so good and you were young.

Torii Hunter always said every time you get in the playoffs, enjoy it. You never know when you’re going to be back.

In the playoff games and in the big leagues in general, especially so late in the season with the level of focus, every play matters even more. They all matter all year long, but now it’s become where it always comes down to that one play or one pitch. That attention to detail is important late in the season.

Carlos Mendoza said that’s something you in particular have been hammering home with other players.

You’ve got to manage your energy, and you’ve got to play the game hard. Personally, and I know the other guys in this clubhouse have the same mind about it, we’re just going to give everything we’ve got until the end and see where we stand.

Has this been the most fun you’ve had in baseball?

In my whole career. I’ve been with different teams and different situations. But everything going through, the song, the energy, the team, the sign, the team winning and clicking as a group — I’m just happy. I’m happy to contribute and very humble about this great opportunity. I’m taking full advantage of it.

Injury updates

Red = 60-day IL
Orange = 15-day IL
Blue = 10-day IL

• Francisco Lindor could be back on Tuesday. He received an injection in his sore back on Thursday, took batting practice on Friday and performed baseball activities over the weekend.
• Kodai Senga will not be back this week. Senga felt discomfort in his triceps after his one-inning rehab start for Syracuse on Saturday. The right-hander will continue throwing and could eventually be a factor in the postseason.
• Christian Scott will undergo Tommy John surgery. He’s done until the 2026 season.

Wild-card schedule

San Diego (89-67): at Los Angeles³, at Arizona³
Arizona (87-69): v. San Francisco³, v. San Diego³
Atlanta (85-73): v. New York³, v. Kansas City³

Tiebreakers

The Mets hold the tiebreaker over both the Padres and Diamondbacks. The winner of this week’s series in Atlanta will also own that tiebreaker.

(For the truly optimistic, the Phillies own the tiebreaker over the Mets for the division.)

Last week in Mets

A note on the epigraph

I must admit I altered Bolaño a touch, eliminating a “we Mexicans” from that line. I like how this way it fits the Mets fan base at the moment.

Earlier this summer, the Times compiled its best books of the 21st century. My top 10, for anyone interested, is:

1. “Swansong 1945,” Walter Kempowski
2. “2666,” Roberto Bolaño
3. “The Corrections,” Jonathan Franzen
4. “Exhalation,” Ted Chiang
5. “Oblivion,” David Foster Wallace
6. “Evicted,” Matthew Desmond
7. “Leaving the Atocha Station,” Ben Lerner
8. “Outline,” Rachel Cusk
9. “Normal People,” Sally Rooney
10. “Skippy Dies,” Paul Murray

Trivia time

When’s the last time the Mets won the season series over an Atlanta team that finished above .500?

HINT: It was the first full season for a certain Mets manager.

(I’ll reply to the correct answer in the comments.)

(Photo of Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)