This morning, I want to start in the micro as we look back on yesterday’s Pulse Poll, which pondered whether the San Francisco 49ers could make a fourth straight trip to the NFC title game. The results were mixed:
This makes sense to me. On the one hand, it’s so, so hard to continue this trajectory of elite play, just by sheer luck factor. Injuries happen. Flukes appear, ready to dismantle a hopeful season with one flick of fate. For now, logic probably says there aren’t two better teams in the NFC than San Francisco.
But that’s because one hasn’t appeared.
With just one day before the season begins, you’ll see predictions across the football internet, much as you’re seeing here. But I want to focus on something a little more nebulous — and a little more connective: hope.
Every team is 0-0. Every fan has plotted disaster and dream scenarios for the year, and both are equally valid right now. We exist in a unique liminal space where the season is both here and yet we still have no data, which means everything is possible.
To that end, we launched our Hope-O-Meter today. It’s a fan-sourced measure of how optimistic (or pessimistic) each NFL fan base is right now, which features a lot of that same emotion. I want to highlight a team from each section of the list:
- Best: Detroit (1st, 98.8 percent optimism) — There is plenty to love for the Lions, who probably should’ve won the NFC title last year. The front office worked hard to maintain the core, and retaining offensive coordinator Ben Johnson might be the biggest coup of the offseason. I don’t know if beating out the optimism of the back-to-back Super Bowl champs is logical, but I still get it.
- Meh: Arizona (20th, 72 percent optimism) — This is the perfect example of a team on the metaphorical edge. They have weapons in Kyler Murray and first-round draft pick Marvin Harrison Jr., and this team played better than we expected last year. But they play in a crowded NFC and even the optimists here expect nine wins at most.
- Bad: New Orleans (32nd, 16 percent optimism) — Woe is me, right? Every reason for pessimism here is warranted. An expensive, old team looks destined for a frustratingly mediocre year. And yet the delusional fan in me can envision success: Derek Carr rebounds to become a top-15 QB in a new offensive scheme, and that’s all New Orleans needs to make a surprise playoff appearance. The defense should be good enough to pick up the rest. Just don’t bring this up when I’m begging for Spencer Rattler playing time come December.
See where your team landed on the Hope-O-Meter, which was very fun. We also have fresh NFL Power Rankings ahead of Week 1.
And of course we can’t forget our own prediction tally:
1. Chiefs or the field in the AFC?
Pulse answer: Chiefs.
2. Best rookie quarterback QBR?
Pulse answer: Caleb Williams.
3. Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen?
Pulse answer: Josh Allen.
4. 49ers NFC title game appearance?
Pulse answer: Yep.
