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With six days to go in the regular season, it’s officially Champagne season. The AL wild-card race is a beautiful mess. The Mets and Diamondbacks are trying to hold off the Braves. Pull out those tiebreaker scenarios! The playoffs are almost here. I’m Rustin Dodd — pinch-hitting for Levi Weaver — with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!
A Superstar’s Future: Will Mike Trout ever truly be great again?
The Athletic’s Andy McCullough and Sam Blum published a lengthy story yesterday on the Angels’ Mike Trout, who is quietly becoming this generation’s Ken Griffey Jr. — a transcendent superstar who spends his 30s battling injuries and failing to reach his previous peak.
From the story:
“Trout’s baseball existence is now focused on that singular goal: To resemble the singular talent he was before injuries derailed his career. His eventual place in Cooperstown remains assured. But his time as one of baseball’s best players appears to have ended. The milestones that once seemed so assured — 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, 1,500 RBIs — may be out of reach, as he has averaged only 66 games per season since 2021 and hasn’t played in more than 140 since 2016.”
The story dives into the injuries that have derailed Trout, 33, and asks a simple question: Can he handle being a merely good player after close to a decade of playing like an all-time great?
But it also made me think of Shohei Ohtani, Trout’s former teammate with the Angels. True greatness is fleeting, and someday Ohtani will no longer be Ohtani. But it’s also been 10 years since we saw Trout in the postseason, and as we wait to watch Ohtani in October with the Dodgers, I wondered: Would Trout have been better off doing what Ohtani did?
At least one former MLB manager thinks so.
“If I had one wish, it would be that he’d be able to participate with a team that has a chance to get to the playoffs,” former Angels manager Joe Maddon says in the story. “A team that’s able to rest him on a consistent basis — even if he may not want that. Or put him in a position that takes a little stress off him. Just to get him on the field.”
More in the story here.
Ken’s Notebook: After division title, Phillies likely to get their rest
Back in spring training, I was inside the Philadelphia Phillies’ clubhouse when the players learned of Atlanta Braves manager Brian Snitker’s comments about the effect of the five-day layoff before the Division Series.
Snitker said that he doesn’t like the playoff system, explaining, “It’s hard to hit velocity when you haven’t seen anything in five days.” A number of Phillies took offense, believing Snitker was making excuses and demeaning their back-to-back triumphs over the Braves in the DS. The Phils said they would much rather have the rest. This year, after winning their first NL East title since 2011, they are on track to get it.
The bye teams most likely will be the Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL, and New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians in the AL. In 2022, the first year of the current format, two of the four bye teams were upset in the DS. In 2023, it was three of four, with only the Houston Astros advancing.
Asked last week if anything made him nervous about the layoff, Phillies manager Rob Thomson told The Athletic’s Matt Gelb and others, “Nothing, really. Because I think the wear and tear of the season, the fatigue sets in, and I think they’ve earned some rest. They need the rest. I think if we get there, we have some plans to do some things that I’m not going to reveal right now. But I think we’ll keep them sharp.”
What about the potential disruption of his hitters’ timing?
“With our hitting coaches (Kevin Long, Dustin Lind and Rafael Pena), the way they work and how smart they are, I think I have less concern than I probably would with somebody else.”
The Phillies are expected to play simulated games during their layoff, mixing in players from Triple A so they can field two lineups. Their offense, which collapsed in the final three games of last year’s NLCS, is a mild concern. The team entered Monday fourth in runs per game, but only 10th since the All-Star break. For the season, their chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone was the eighth highest in the majors.
To a degree, we’re nitpicking. While the Phillies’ lineup is not as deep as the Dodgers’, it still is formidable. The Phils’ 53-26 record at home is the best in the majors. Their rotation of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez will be one of the best in the postseason. Their bullpen was excellent before the trade deadline, and president of baseball operations David Dombrowski made it even better with his acquisitions of Carlos Estévez and Tanner Banks.
The bye will present a new challenge. But as Gelb writes, the Phillies all season acted as if they were playing from behind, despite leading the division for nearly five months. They are motivated by how their 2023 season ended. And they will take the five days rest, thank you very much.
Most Underrated Player? Without Pasquantino, the Royals have cratered
It remains highly, highly unlikely that Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino will receive any AL MVP votes. Before he broke his thumb in late August, he was slashing .262/.315/.446 with 19 homers and 97 RBIs. A very solid season? Yes. But nothing more.
But consider what has happened to the Royals since the 26-year-old Pasquantino was removed from the lineup:
- With Pasquantino: 75-59, 4.88 runs per game
- Without Pasquantino*: 7-15, 2.95 runs per game
* Includes loss on Aug. 29 when Pasquantino exited early with injury in Houston.
It’s not all Pasquantino, of course. The Royals’ offense has also been highly reliant on high (and perhaps unsustainable) averages with runners in scoring position. But consider this a case in which analytics don’t quite convey the value of a hitter. Kansas City has been highly dependent on three hitters — Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and Pasquantino. When Pasquantino went out, Perez stopped hitting for power, too, and the result has been a tremendous collapse that might cost the Royals a playoff spot.
Shohei, Meet October: What will Ohtani deliver in the playoffs?
One of the most amazing things about Shohei Ohtani’s career is that he’s created a long list of indelible moments — the WBC battle against Mike Trout, three homers and 10 RBIs while going 50/50 — and he’s done so without ever swinging a bat or throwing a pitch in the postseason.
Finally, that’s about to change, and Andy McCullough captured the anticipation in this story about Ohtani’s tumultuous/historic/incredible season.
“It’s going to really test his patience and discipline,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told The Athletic the day before the team clinched its 12th consecutive postseason berth last week. “Knowing that he’s waited his entire life, essentially, to be in the major-league postseason. It’s going to be fascinating to watch.”
As McCullough writes:
“Ohtani is no stranger to external obsession. Some in Japan describe him as ‘kanpeki na hito,’ which roughly translates to ‘the perfect person.’ The Dodgers do not seem to disagree. Roberts has suggested he may become the greatest player in the history of baseball. ‘One of one,’ first-base coach Clayton McCullough called him. ‘I don’t see how there is anybody more talented who has ever played this game than him,’ teammate Kiké Hernández said. Added reliever Daniel Hudson, ‘I feel pretty lucky to have a front-row seat for him every night.’”
Here’s guessing he does something big in October.
Handshakes and High Fives
The White Sox are about to surpass the 1962 Mets for the most losses in the modern era. Here’s Jon Greenberg sitting in with former White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen and Chuck Garfien on their postgame show as they finish off an epic White Sox season.
This is a bit of a stunner: The Tigers are calling up top pitching prospect Jackson Jobe as they continue their playoff push.
A’s owner John Fisher wrote a letter to the fans. It misspelled “Loma Prieta.”
The latest Power Rankings are up, featuring one thing every team is playing for.
NL wild card check-in: The Mets (and Diamondbacks) are trying to hold off the Braves. The Mets feel like a team of destiny. But … the Braves are a longtime nemesis. That feels right.
AL wild card check-in: It’s a Royal Rumble for the final wild-card spots — and as we mentioned, it may not feature the Royals. The surging Tigers are sitting pretty with a three-game series against the White Sox to end the season. But the Twins hold the tiebreakers against both the Royals and Tigers.
The only thing left to do is watch. But before that, here’s a primer on the contenders who have already clinched their spot in the dance and those still trying to make it.
Most-clicked in yesterday’s newsletter: The White Sox social media admins tweeting right through the pain.
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(Top photo: Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
