Orioles vs. Royals 2024 Wild Card Series preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

When the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals square off in the playoffs, it’ll be a matchup of two teams that, in one way at least, nearly mirror each other. The Orioles, who won the American League East in 2023, returned to the postseason just two years removed from losing 110 games. Now, the Royals, losers of 106 games a year ago, have made their way back to October for the first time since winning the World Series in 2015. Sounds pretty familiar, doesn’t it? The teams will meet in a best-of-three AL Wild Card Series, starting with Tuesday’s Game 1, with the winner advancing to face the New York Yankees in the ALDS.

Game times

Game 1: Royals at Orioles, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 4:08 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Game 2: Royals at Orioles, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 4:38 p.m. ET, ESPN

Game 3: Royals at Orioles, Thursday, Oct. 3, 4:08 p.m. ET, ESPN (if necessary)

Pitching matchups

Over the course of the year, no matter what results statistics you look at, the Royals’ rotation was a top-three unit in the game. Projections … don’t buy that. By looking at their strikeout rate (ninth-best), Stuff+ (17th-best), and removing the context of their home-run-suppressing ballpark, Kauffman Stadium, those projections put the front four of Kansas City’s rotation as the worst foursome in the playoffs, in a virtual tie with the Cleveland Guardians. That seems wrong, too. It’s more likely that this is a strength for the Royals, even if Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Brady Singer achieved their results by having wide arsenals (super-wide in the case of Lugo) and good command instead of standout stuff. That’s great depth, and Cole Ragans is a stud.

On the other side, the Orioles’ rotation was hurt by the loss of Grayson Rodriguez, and those same projections have their foursome of Corbin Burnes, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer and Albert Suárez as a bottom-third playoff rotation as well. But in this series, the fourth starter won’t matter, and that helps Baltimore. And though Burnes’ whiffs haven’t been on par with his normal career rates, he’s been fiddling with his arsenal recently. In September, he added three inches of drop to his cutter and started incorporating a sweeper. Over the last 30 days, he had a 1.20 ERA with his best strikeout rate of the year, meaning he’s probably back on his business and Ragans’ equal.

In the bullpen, neither squad rates as a strength among the playoff teams. Adding Lucas Erceg to that Kansas City ’pen was important, but there’s only one of him. Someone like Carlos Hernandez or Daniel Lynch will have to step up for the Royals to make a long run in the playoffs. Baltimore’s bullpen has a 5.50 ERA over the last thirty days, but that number is obscured at least partially by some poor luck. If Seranthony Domínguez and Cionel Pérez can have a decent stretch of command, the Orioles might still have the advantage.

It still makes the most sense to give the Royals the advantage here, but it’s not by as much as the season-long numbers suggest. — Eno Sarris

Why the Orioles will win

After a rather dreary start to the month, the Orioles have closed September playing very good baseball. They took two of three against the Yankees, and swept the Minnesota Twins. Catcher Adley Rutschman showed some signs of breaking out of a slump as well. In these best-of-three Wild Card series, how you’re playing at the time can be crucial. Baltimore will be at home. It was able to play a mostly stress-free weekend, while the Royals still needed to clinch their spot.

It’s fair to wonder if Baltimore has enough pitching to make a sustained postseason run. But in a short series, its staff should stack up well. Burnes has allowed just one run total over his last three starts, and he’ll get the ball in Game 1.

The Orioles’ foray into the postseason was wildly disappointing last year. They were swept in the ALDS by the Texas Rangers after an incredible season. There isn’t the same hype or expectations surrounding this team, given some of its struggles. But it’s largely the same young core, and they now have some experience to lean on — experience that the Kansas City players don’t have yet. The Royals also lost nine of 12 to end the season. They’re a great story. But are they good enough to beat the Orioles? The advantage is definitely on Baltimore’s side. — Sam Blum

Why the Royals will win

The Royals had to fight until Game 160 to clinch a postseason spot. But they are positioned to be a handful. The starting rotation, headlined by Ragans and Lugo, is tops among playoff teams in ERA, and those two will start Games 1 and 2, respectively. The bullpen, once a weakness, has been fortified by Erceg, acquired at the trade deadline from Oakland, and lefty Kris Bubic, who has returned from Tommy John surgery.

The offense struggled in September, but it still features Bobby Witt Jr., one of the best baseball players in the world, and Salvador Perez, back in the postseason for the first time since winning World Series MVP in 2015. It’s also possible that first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino (broken thumb) could return Tuesday, nearly two weeks sooner than expected. Pasquantino could risk breaking his thumb again. But such an injury is unlikely to affect the start of his 2025 season, giving the club incentive to be aggressive.

“We’re more concerned with, ‘Can he help us win a ballgame on Tuesday?’” Royals general manager J.J. Picollo said Saturday on Bally Sports Kansas City. “If the answer is yes, he’ll probably be in that lineup.”

If the Royals can find some timely hitting and power — and that’s no guarantee — they can beat anyone. — Rustin Dodd

Note: Check back Monday for series predictions from The Athletic’s MLB staff.

Orioles player spotlight: Zach Eflin, RHP

Eflin hasn’t been announced as the Game 2 starting pitcher, but it’s trending that way. He struggled in his wild-card game for the Tampa Bay Rays last year, so this will be another chance for the 30-year-old right-hander. He’s been stellar in his nine starts for Baltimore, posting a 2.60 ERA.

If he gets the call, that Game 2 start will be critical. The Orioles will either be going for the series win or they’ll need Eflin to shove with their season on the line. He wasn’t great in his most recent outing against the Yankees, walking five over 4 2/3 innings. It was only the second time, however, that he hadn’t gone at least six frames. In his lone game against the Royals this season, as a member of the Rays, he pitched five innings and allowed five earned runs. He’ll be relied on to figure out their lineup. — Sam Blum

Royals player spotlight: Cole Ragans, LHP

Ragans, 26, has arguably been the best starter in the AL not named Tarik Skubal. While his teammate Lugo finished with a better ERA (3.00 to Ragans’ 3.14), Ragans had a 2.99 FIP with a league-leading 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He also owns a 2023 World Series ring while never appearing in the postseason. Ragans started last season with the Rangers before being traded to Kansas City for reliever Aroldis Chapman on June 30, 2023. In 44 starts since, he has a 3.00 ERA with 312 strikeouts in 258 innings.

Once a first-round pick in 2016, a slew of elbow injuries paused his career. But after a breakthrough in Kansas City and his first All-Star appearance earlier this summer, Ragans has a chance to introduce himself to a wider audience in Game 1. — Rustin Dodd

Tale of the Tape

Orioles must-reads

For the Orioles, a hard-earned playoff berth provides an opportunity for a ‘fresh start’

How Earl Weaver once tried to win a pennant race by starting a lefty at shortstop

Traditionally birds of a different feather, Orioles and Ravens building unique bond in Baltimore

Royals must-reads

Around Bobby Witt Jr., Royals build a new culture and enter MLB’s modern era

The Hosmer play: A scout, a mad dash, a moment that defined the ’15 World Series

The Royals’ surprising playoff spot was fueled by a top-to-bottom culture change

(Top image: Corbin Burnes: Randy Litzinger / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; Bobby Witt Jr.: Joe Sargent / Getty Images)