MLB bullpen report: Trade deadline fallout, Paul Sewald's struggles persist and more

Although the trade deadline provided a bevy of reliever trades, only two closers were moved despite rumors suggesting more deals were discussed. The most significant deals were pending free agents Carlos Estévez and Tanner Scott, though Jason Adam yielded prospects for Tampa Bay. In the post-deadline fantasy fallout, here are some notes of interest from teams in different categories. 

Restructured Bullpens

American League 

• Chicago White Sox: The team traded save leader Michael Kopech to the Dodgers, leaving John Brebbia in line for saves through the end of the season, as sparse as they may be for his team. 
• Kansas City Royals: James McArthur produced an inflated 1.73 WHIP in July while converting four of five save chances across 8.2 innings. He allowed at least a run in four of eight outings. The team added Hunter Harvey and Lucas Erceg to strengthen the bullpen’s backend, and fluid save chances may emerge unless McArthur improves in August. 
• Los Angeles Angels: Ron Washington loves his veterans. Despite intimating he would use Ben Joyce for most save chances after the trade deadline, pending free agent Hunter Strickland received the first chance. Fantasy managers should remain patient with Joyce, but league size and bench space matter in these decisions. 

National League 

• Colorado Rockies: This leverage ladder was tilting toward Victor Vodnik before the team traded Jalen Beeks and Nick Mears, but these moves solidify his role as the team’s preferred option for saves for the remainder of the season. He’s recorded 18 strikeouts against five walks and a 0.92 WHIP in his past 16.1 innings across 14 games since June 21. 
• Miami Marlins: In the first win after Scott’s trade, Calvin Faucher worked a scoreless ninth. Anthony Bender took on the top of the lineup in the eighth, giving up two hits. Andrew Nardi was scoreless in the sixth inning against the 2-3-4 lineup pocket with three strikeouts. Plan on this triumvirate in the mix for saves until one seizes the role based on performance. 
• Philadelphia Phillies: Manager Rob Thomson prefers not labeling his reliever roles, but the move for Estévez solidifies the late innings and he’s in line for the majority save share through the end of the season. Those with Jeff Hoffman and José Alvarado can move on in 12-team or shallower leagues. 
• San Diego Padres: Building a “superpen,” A.J. Preller not only traded for Jason Adam, he landed the Marlins’ closer on the next day. To his credit, Scott said he will be ready whenever the phone rings, but as things stand now, it will be Robert Suarez remaining the closer — now he can be used in fewer multiple-inning saves and be provided with more rest when necessary given the added bullpen depth. 

Adjusted leverage ladders do not end here. Devin Williams was activated and recorded a scoreless outing in his season debut. However, he will not make back-to-back outings until further notice. He remains viable from a fantasy standpoint, but this caps his upside for saves in the near future.

Mason Miller was placed on the injured list with a fractured left pinky finger. He may not miss much time, but it’s opened the door for Tyler Ferguson, who has secured two saves and recorded 13 strikeouts against three walks with a 0.65 WHIP in his past 9.1 innings. If Oakland wants to stretch out Miller for more innings in the second half, it may give Ferguson more save chances. But this remains purely speculative at this point. 

It’s been “pin the tail on the Dodgers reliever” during save chances. Four different Dodgers notched a save in July for a combined eight saves. This group has also suffered nine blown saves and is struggling as August begins. It feels like Dave Roberts hopes Evan Phillips can regain past form but keep tabs on the newly acquired dark horse, Michael Kopech. 

There have been multiple changes in our leverage pathways. Recognizing how a manager prefers handling high-leverage innings can create a competitive advantage. Here are our high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels:

• Mostly Linear: This is a more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray, but it’s usually a predictable leverage pathway. 
• Primary Save Share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves. However, he may also be used in match-up-based situations, whether dictated by batter-handedness or batting order pockets in the late innings. This provides multiple relievers with save chances each series or week throughout the season. 
• Shared Saves: Usually, two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes based on handedness, rest, or recent usage patterns that keep them fresh. While these situations usually rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can get into the mix. Some teams also prefer a match-up-based option, assigning pitchers a hitter pocket for a series, causing fluid save opportunities. 

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Closer Concerns

Paul Sewald (ARI): Although his manager deflected a direct answer (video), Sewald began July with three blown saves, and he ended it with a hold, but he was removed from his save opportunity during Wednesday’s game on the brink of his fifth blown save in a 12-game span. His four-seam fastball velocity remains down this season, and the lingering effects of his oblique injury may signal it won’t rebound with time off:

Despite the drop in velocity, he’s throwing his four-seam fastball more this year compared to 2023: 

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This has not only happened this year; one can see a drop in performance since he arrived in Arizona: 

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In the near term, fantasy managers await Torey Lovullo’s plan for future saves, but a mix of A.J. Puk, Ryan Thompson, and Kevin Ginkel may happen as soon as this weekend. 

Craig Kimbrel (BAL): Based on his finish in July, it seemed like the Orioles would spend a prospect package on Scott, not Trevor Rogers. Kimbrel last recorded a save on July 7. He’s allowed at least a run in four of his past six appearances, including multiple runs in three, resulting in nine runs (seven earned) and a 2.45 WHIP his past 5.2 innings. Like Sewald above, he’s struggling with velocity: 

Taking this a step further, here are his splits using 94 mph as our guide, with results on four-seam fastballs above and below this speed for the year: 

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Many presume Yennier Cano will get save chances in August, but his career 5.34 ERA in the ninth inning with a 1.34 WHIP may be a harbinger of future events. Keep tabs on Seranthony Domínguez. A fresh start combined with three scoreless appearances with his new team could yield some saves in the final two months. 

July Leaderboards

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2024 Leaderboard

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