The New York Knicks, for the first time in years, are postseason regulars.
They will tip off their third playoff appearance in four seasons at 6 p.m. (ET) Saturday when they welcome the Philadelphia 76ers for Game 1 of their first-round series. And New York is in a better position to make a run today than it was in 2023 when it fell to the Miami Heat in Round 2.
The Knicks, fighting through injury after injury, climbed to second place in the Eastern Conference by season’s end, capping off the campaign with win No. 50, the first time they’ve reached that milestone in 11 years. But this won’t be your typical No. 2 versus No. 7 series.
The Sixers have 2022-23 NBA MVP Joel Embiid and All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey. When the band is together, they are far from the seventh-best team in the conference. Yet, the Knicks have beaten top-notch squads all season. Now is their chance to do it when it counts most.
Here are five key questions about the upcoming series:
Which 76ers are the real 76ers?
When Embiid plays, the 76ers are dominant. When he doesn’t, they don’t perform even like a Play-In Tournament team, let alone a playoff one. But what are we to make of Philadelphia when Embiid is present but isn’t the MVP version of himself?
The Sixers went 31-8 in games Embiid played this season and 16-27 in ones he did not. When he’s on the court, they outscore opponents by 10.3 points per 100 possessions. Had he not gotten hurt, he could have won his third consecutive scoring title. His 34.7-point average was the highest in the league.
On one hand, Embiid isn’t moving with his usual gusto. Since returning from knee surgery on April 2, he’s been slow jogging around the court. He’s not wrecking defenders down low, instead relying more on a smooth jumper, which has propped up his scoring. He sat out Philly’s final regular-season game because of the knee but returned for the team’s Play-In Tournament win over the Heat on Wednesday. Embiid went for 23 points and 15 rebounds during the victory, though he shot just 6 of 17 from the field.
If he is still hobbled, the Knicks will test him.
They could bombard him with pick-and-rolls, challenging his ability to guard in space. They can make a point to run after makes. New York already emphasizes transition after defensive rebounds, especially when someone like Josh Hart grabs one and streaks 94 feet.
But if Embiid isn’t getting back on defense even after Philadelphia scores, the Knicks could rush to the basket, hoping either for a five-on-four or for a frantic defense to match up incorrectly. That’s when Jalen Brunson can pick at an unqualified defender or Isaiah Hartenstein can bully a tinier one.
But on the other hand, the same trend remains: Philadelphia is not losing when Embiid plays. The 76ers ended the season on an eight-game winning streak with five of those victories coming in games Embiid started.
Will this carry into the playoffs? Or will Embiid in his current form not have enough horsepower to defeat the resilient Knicks?
How do the 76ers guard Brunson?
The Athletic covered how the Knicks could attack Embiid earlier this week, but the Sixers, waiting for a face-off with another top-notch scorer, will confront a similar question. What the heck are they supposed to do about Brunson?
The answer is simple: Anything they can.
Defenses have hounded Brunson, the NBA’s fourth-leading scorer during the regular season with increasingly aggressive strategies during his rise. They have obsessed about getting the ball out of his hands. Especially of late, it hasn’t worked out well for Knicks opponents.
Brunson has now mastered beating double-teams. He dumps off the basketball promptly and then darts to another place on the court. He’s become a headache to guard as he bounces around screens.
Long defenders will await him with the Sixers.
Kelly Oubre Jr., a lanky, athletic wing, should see time on him, as could Nicolas Batum, a headier, fundamental vet. As long as Kyle Lowry is in the league, he will be up to his chicanery, which makes him a candidate to guard anyone. But like with the Knicks and Embiid, the job Philadelphia does against Brunson will depend on more than just his primary defender. The rest of the team is just as important, especially when Brunson brings other Knicks into the play.
Let’s start with pick-and-rolls, which Brunson is using to slice up even the stoutest fortresses.
Embiid is at his best in a drop pick-and-roll coverage, dipping into the paint in the hopes of taking away layups and dunks. But Brunson can carve up that style. And that means if the Sixers match up with the Knicks conventionally with their center defending New York’s, Brunson’s pick-and-rolls with Hartenstein could present a challenge.
A drop coverage — especially when it’s a particularly deep one, which is where Embiid excels since it turns him into a massive barrier in front of the hoop — can leave short midrange jumpers and floaters open. That’s Brunson’s comfort zone. Meanwhile, sending Embiid farther from the rim won’t be as easy to do if his mobility is amiss.
If Embiid is dropping back and Brunson and Hartenstein are pressing him with pick-and-rolls, the Knicks point guard could easily get to his favorite spots. Hartenstein could do the same. He went for 17 points the one time that Embiid played New York during the regular season. Many of those buckets were floaters. Hartenstein can distribute when defenders don’t push up against him, too.
This is where the 76ers’ creativity comes into play.
Philadelphia head coach Nick Nurse is famous for the schemes he will throw at postseason walls in the hopes that one will stick. He’s most famous for deploying a box-and-one zone in the finals. But he’ll try other types of zones. He’ll assign big men to guard smalls and mediums to guard bigs. If the Knicks find success placing Embiid in Brunson-run pick-and-rolls, maybe he rejiggers the matchups.
Heck, if Nurse wants to get fancy, he could begin the series with Embiid defending Hart, who’s not a threat from beyond the arc. Power forward Tobias Harris, who isn’t as impactful of a stopper but could be more comfortable venturing from the paint to disrupt actions that involve Brunson, could man Hartenstein. In those scenarios, Embiid can roam off Hart, taking away the paint.
The Sixers will shuffle around coverages and matchups. They will trap Brunson. They will send delayed double-teams. They will send assailing double-teams. They have a million other options. They won’t stick with a single strategy. If Brunson sees the same one for too long, he will figure it out.
Who is the third most impactful player in the series?
The first two are obvious: Brunson and Embiid. But what about after them?
The answer could be Maxey, who averages 26 points per game and will receive first-place votes for NBA Most Improved Player. He and Embiid have developed seamless chemistry this season. Maxey will run pick-and-rolls with his center, getting Embiid open on the way to the paint. Their dribble handoffs may be the most difficult to guard of any duo in the Eastern Conference.
As Anunoby puts it, “They both can do everything. They can initiate. They both shoot or drive or draw fouls and pass.”
Of course, Anunoby is not an All-Star, nor is he a candidate for any major awards this season. And yet, he could be the other answer to this question.
In a vacuum, Maxey is the superior player. Both are free agents this upcoming summer. Maxey will stay true to his name and receive a max contract. Anunoby is due for a massive payday, too. And when he does, it will be because of matchups like this one.
The Knicks could shift around Anunoby. He could guard Harris for moments; they could place him on a stationary shooter and let him roam. On other plays, he will switch to just about anyone. But chances are, he will spend more time manning Maxey than anyone else. If he shuts down a tenacious scorer, even a dominant series from Embiid may not be enough for the 76ers to fend off the Knicks. But if Maxey gets hot, even with one of the world’s most physical defenders tracking his every move, his scoring and chemistry with Embiid could overwhelm New York.
Who is the Knicks’ X-factor?
Mitchell Robinson. No one else on this team has a greater disparity between reality and potential. Maybe the six days off between the last time the Knicks played and when they begin against the Sixers can help.
Robinson is still getting his wind back after returning from ankle surgery at the end of March. Throw him on the treadmill for a week, and it’s possible he flows with a little more energy come the playoffs. If he does, even if it doesn’t result in him matching his early-season performance, which entered him into all-defensive conversations, the Knicks have a massive addition. Between him and Hartenstein, that’s 48 minutes of rim protection against Embiid.
It also could hand head coach Tom Thibodeau more flexibility with his rotations.
Let’s call the following the Hartenstein conundrum:
Hartenstein is important to play alongside Brunson because of how he facilitates after defenses trap the point guard. He’s become Brunson’s greatest pick-and-roll partner, a notable part of the offense’s success without Julius Randle, who is out for the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. But there is an argument that the Knicks could be best splitting up Brunson and Hartenstein, too.
In the 50 games following the Anunoby trade — which sent two staples of the second unit, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett, to the Toronto Raptors — the offense was more than 20 points per 100 possessions worse with Brunson on the bench. In short, they could not score with any competence without their point guard.
The Knicks have played around with using Hartenstein in reserve units lately, hoping his playmaking can give the offense a jolt. The non-Brunson minutes remain a problem, but at times, it’s worked.
If Robinson is rolling, gobbling up offensive boards and walling off the paint, the Knicks could feel more comfortable using him with the starters, which could help them separate Hartenstein and Brunson for a few more minutes a game. But so far, Robinson has shown only flashes of his early-season self.
Who is the 76ers’ X-factor?
Lowry. Why should this go any differently than last season’s playoff run?
Only a year ago, Lowry was coming off a disappointing regular season with the Heat. His offense faded. He didn’t create shots nearly as often, and the jumper wasn’t as dangerous. And yet, it didn’t matter come the playoffs.
Lowry joined Miami’s second unit and diced apart opposing reserves, helping the Heat on a journey to the NBA Finals, which included a second-round ousting of New York. When people inside the Knicks discuss that loss to Miami, Lowry is one of the first names they mention. Now, after signing with the Sixers following a trade and buyout in February, the six-time All-Star will challenge the Knicks again.
They don’t look forward to this, even if Lowry isn’t the spry fighter that he was during his younger years. He starts for Philadelphia, closes games often and drains 40 percent of his 3s since joining his hometown squad. Somehow, 18 years after he entered the league, he still inserts himself into seemingly any meaningful possession.
The Lowry experience may be in one of its final chapters, but it’s not done.
(Photo of Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Maxey: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)
