Let’s start with the bad news: It’s not a great draft if you’re an upperclassman.
That’s true for one simple reason: My goodness, this freshman class is good. It’s not just Cooper Flagg-mania either; between the unusually talented group in the NCAA this season and the surfeit of overseas players in their first draft-eligible year, we could end up with the entire lottery composed of either one-and-dones or teenaged Europeans. It feels like the list is just getting longer, actually — over the past several weeks, Georgetown’s Thomas Sorber, Michigan State’s Jase Richardson and Alabama’s Labaron Philon all entered the group chat.
Right now, I’m not sure there’s a single upperclassman who is a consensus top-20 pick (not a high bar). Making matters worse, a couple of the ones who seemed closest to breaking through have had fairly underwhelming starts to their seasons.
Fortunately, several other older players have shown they might have been badly underrated heading into the season. Today, I want to focus on 10 players, including a couple of international ones, who I think haven’t been fully appreciated yet for their NBA potential.
Before we begin, a disclaimer: It’s January. As we always reminded scouts in Memphis when I was vice president of basketball operations for the Grizzlies, we don’t get extra credit for having all the answers before June, and we’re allowed to change our minds. Any or all of these guys could move up, down or off my board entirely by the time we have to put our pencils down in five and a half months.
More importantly, all of these guys (along with the fab freshmen) are moving into the toughest part of the season: conference games against tougher opposition, in more hostile road venues, with more concentrated scouting. Inevitably, some players will survive this better than others.
That said, here are my 10 guys worth watching:
Noah Penda, 6-foot-8 PF, Le Mans
Penda put his name in the 2024 draft before withdrawing; it seems like he has a much better chance of going through the whole process this year. Although he doesn’t pop on tape as an off-the-charts athlete, his production and superior basketball instincts are getting hard to ignore.
Moving up from the French second division to the main Jeep Elite league, he’s had a season that’s statistically equal, if not superior, to what lottery picks Zaccharie Risacher and Tidjane Salaun did a year ago. Penda is more of a sheet-stuffer than a scorer; he’s averaged over three “stocks” (steals + blocks) a game and handed out nearly two dimes for every turnover. His shooting looms as a shaky swing skill, but he’s made 36.2 percent of his 3s this season on decent volume; a 69.4 percent mark from the free-throw line is less encouraging.
Darrion Williams, 6-6 Jr. SF, Texas Tech
Williams established himself as a draft candidate with a strong sophomore season in Lubbock after transferring from Nevada, but his breakout junior year could have him getting first-round consideration. Essentially operating as a point forward, he’s handing out 11.0 dimes per 100 possessions — heady stuff for a muscly forward — and nearly three assists per turnover.
Additionally, he’s a good pull-up shooter who has made 55.1 percent of his 2s this season; while he has never been a high-volume 3-point shooter, the fact he’s a career 85 percent foul shooter bodes well for his ability to stretch out.
Williams already graded out well in other phases of the game, with a three-year history as an elite positional rebounder and a plus steal rate. But pouring in 33.7 points per 100 possessions on top of it, and doing it efficiently, is the icing on the cake. If he can maintain this level of play through the Big 12 season, he could be a big riser by June.
Johni Broome, 6-10 Sr. C, Auburn
Broome played well enough at the NBA Scouting Combine a year ago that I thought he would get drafted, but he decided to return to Auburn. All he’s done since then is destroy college basketball, posting an NCAA-leading 37.6 PER for the nation’s second-ranked team. What’s impressive is the variety of Broome’s game — he can run the floor, post up, spot up for 3s or beast smaller guys around the basket. Broome also has an absolutely monstrous rebound rate (25.9 percent) and averages nearly three assists for every turnover.
Scouts will have questions about his age and his defense. Broome isn’t an elite mover and doesn’t play above the rim a ton, but his long arms have helped him sport a 10.2 percent block rate this year, and he doesn’t foul. Skeptics will also note that he’s in his fifth season of college basketball and will turn 23 in July; drafting old centers has been a mostly unsuccessful venture over the past several years.
Nonetheless, Broome bears a lot of similarities to another overlooked, hugely successful, old college center who was drafted late: Golden State’s Trayce Jackson-Davis. I’m generally not a fan of drafting centers or drafting older guys, but in Broome’s case, he has an argument for a first-round valuation.
Kam Jones, 6-5 Sr. SG, Marquette
I wrote about Jones already and don’t want to repeat too much, but suffice it to say, Jones continues to be the most productive perimeter player in college basketball by a wide margin. Jones will be 23 on draft night, but his story is a bit different from some other older players because analytics models have been on him since his sophomore year.
Despite his age, he might be the one player on this list who I think has the best odds of crashing the lottery, Devin Carter-style, given his ready-made skill set for the next level and multi-year history of elite production as a collegian.
Sergio De Larrea, right, drives to the basket during EuroCup action in October. (Hans Lucas / AFP via Getty Images)
Sergio De Larrea, 6-6 SF, Valencia
My basic rule of thumb is that guys who can play at a high level in Europe as teenagers have near-zero fail rates. De Larrea is playing a limited role for Valencia, with just 211 total minutes thus far, but he’s also been an impactful player against some of the highest-level competition Europe has to offer. (I’ve also seen three listed heights for De Larrea; I picked the one in the middle.)
At this point, the only question is whether we can see more as the season progresses. De Larrea isn’t a nuclear athlete and has some shooting questions that aren’t going to be answered by a hot stretch of 14 makes in 31 attempts. The crafty ballhandling and slashing he shows on tape have also been somewhat offset by a phenomenally high turnover rate; you’d like to see a bit more ball security from him in the second half of this season.
With that said, I’ve had scouts from multiple teams mention De Larrea as a potential sleeper after seeing him overseas. Maybe he’s not such a sleeper anymore, but I’m still surprised he hasn’t been getting more buzz on this side of the pond.
Otega Oweh, 6-5 Jr. SG, Kentucky
The Oklahoma transfer stood out when I saw Kentucky at the Champions Classic earlier this season, showcasing a solid frame, plus athleticism and a nose for the ball that has produced 3.3 steals per 100 possessions in two different programs.
Oweh has made other improvements this season, too, raising his 3-point volume and knocking down 37.8 percent from 3 and 81.5 percent from the line; he’s also radically reduced his turnovers, committing just 10 all season.
Realistically, we’re talking about a role player at the next level, which probably makes Oweh more of a second-round prospect. But I haven’t really seen his name pop up on draft lists, and he strikes me as a pretty clear top-45 candidate.
Rasheer Fleming, 6-9 Jr. PF, Saint Joseph’s
A relatively young junior who won’t turn 21 until this summer, Fleming flashes an intriguing combo of skill and beast ball. While his 40.9 percent mark from 3 is probably an early-season outlier, the fact he adds some touch to his athletic feats around the basket offers inside-outside potential.
As for the interior game, Fleming is shooting 68.5 percent on 2s thanks to plays like this.
Good lord Rasheer Fleming. NO MERCY😳 pic.twitter.com/g2UyrOU2jd
— Ryan Hammer🔨 (@ryanhammer09) December 31, 2024
He’s also a plus rebounder and has been deft enough on the perimeter to swipe 3.3 steals per 100 possessions. Playing in the mid-major Atlantic 10 means Fleming doesn’t get a lot of chances to match up against other first-round prospects or elite teams, and his team is likely too, um, mid, to get into the NCAA Tournament. As a result, he may need to prove his value at the combine.
Adou Thiero, 6-6 Jr. SF, Arkansas
Will he shoot? That’s about the only question left for Thiero to answer in a breakout junior season. Thiero is an elite athlete who has been all over the court defensively (4.4 steals per 100 possessions), while his combination of power and speed allows him to bully his way to the rim on offense.
He’s shooting 69.8 percent on 2s with a high free-throw rate, and his 71.4 percent career mark from the free-throw line indicates his shooting might not be a total lost cause. Even if Thiero never shoots it, he profiles as a superior version of Milwaukee’s Andre Jackson Jr. and should get long looks in the tail end of the first round.
Dailyn Swain, 6-7 So. SF, Xavier
Swain hasn’t had a dominant sophomore season, averaging 9.1 points per game, but he profiles as the sort of player who can be more effective in the NBA than his college scoring numbers might indicate.
Start with his ability to defend, where he has a prototype NBA wing body and has swiped 3.3 steals per 100 possessions across two seasons. Watch here as he traces likely Connecticut lottery pick Liam McNeeley around the perimeter.
Xavier’s Dailyn Swain guarding UConn’s Liam McNeeley
Two of the best young wings in the Big East. Won’t be surprised to see them meet again in the NBA. pic.twitter.com/FjTxCFMKV3
— Ryan Cassidy (@ryancassidycbb) December 19, 2024
Move on, then, to his playmaking numbers, which are pretty strong for a secondary offensive player, and that he makes 56.8 percent of his 2s. The real cherry on top, though, is that Swain’s career free-throw numbers (81.4 percent) present a strong case that he can be a much better 3-point shooter than he has shown. Swain has only made seven 3s in his college career, but if he can be even a mediocre 3-point shooter as a pro, he has a great chance to stick as a role-playing wing.
Jizzle James, 6-1 So. PG, Cincinnati
The son of Pro Football Hall of Fame running back Edgerrin James, it won’t surprise you to learn that Jizzle James has a strong frame that allows him to play bigger than his listed height of 6-1. He also made an impression when I saw him at Georgia Tech with his tight handle, solid floater game and command of the Cincinnati offense. He’s handed out 11.3 dimes per 100 possessions this season, with nearly three assists per turnover.
Shooting questions would loom if James entered the draft this year, at 29.7 percent career from 3 and 75 percent from the line. And short guards always have a much higher prove-it-to-me hurdle to leap to be selected on draft night. James’ strength, however, is a good counterargument to his lack of height, and he has the hops to get up despite his stature.
How bout Jizzle James
— Michael Boston (@michaelkboston) November 24, 2024
Scouts will want to see more in the brutal Big 12 season, of course, especially on the shooting front. Realistically, James is probably a second-round candidate given the strength of this draft, but he’s still better than a lot of players I’ve seen on early draft boards.
Just missed the cut but also worth watching — Eric Dailey, PF, UCLA; Anthony Robinson, PG, Missouri; Miles Byrd, SG, San Diego State; Jaland Lowe, PG, Pittsburgh; Ryan Nembhard, PG, Gonzaga; Brooks Barnhizer, SG, Northwestern; Chaz Lanier, SG, Tennessee; Cameron Matthews, PF, Mississippi State; Dillon Mitchell, PF, Cincinnati; Alex Karaban, SF, Connecticut
(Top photo of Johni Broome: Stew Milne / Getty Images)
