As the Seattle Seahawks head into their Week 10 bye week, it’s time for my annual midseason predictions.
Seattle is 4-5 and last place in the NFC West. The players will get time off to rest and recover while coach Mike Macdonald and his staff will spend this break trying to figure out how the Seahawks can make a second-half push and avoid missing the playoffs for the second straight season.
Seattle has only a 6 percent chance to make the playoffs and 4 percent odds to win the division, according to The Athletic’s projection model. In the NFC, Seattle has better playoff odds than only the Saints, Giants and Panthers.
“We’ve got some work on our hands to go attack this thing and really continue to streamline what we’re doing, how we’re coaching it,” Macdonald said. “We’re trying to get done and have a great plan for next week so we can really hit the ground running on Monday and ramp into the second half of the season, which is critical for us. We have to start producing better results.”
GO DEEPER
Gutting loss to Rams makes clear who Seahawks are: A team that’s not quite good enough
Here are some second-half predictions for each side of the ball, and one tied to Seattle’s playoff future. All stats are provided by TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
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The Seahawks will make multiple offensive line changes
Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Rams was the third straight with the combination of, from left to right, Charles Cross, Laken Tomlinson, Connor Williams, Anthony Bradford and Michael Jerrell playing the majority of the snaps up front. Bradford won the right guard job over third-round rookie Christian Haynes, who was a healthy scratch for the first time this season. Right tackle George Fant returned to the lineup for the first time since Week 1 but re-injured his knee after playing 16 snaps.
Macdonald said “there’s a chance” right tackle Abraham Lucas will return to action against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 11, but that seems unlikely to be the only lineup change coming out of the bye. Cross is arguably the only lineman playing well enough to have a guaranteed starting spot after the break.
All of the guards have problems in the run and pass game, though the right side (Bradford, and Haynes when rotating in) has been unreliable most of the season. Williams does not deliver clean snaps with consistency and isn’t always on the same page as quarterback Geno Smith.
Macdonald said the snap errors are the result of breakdowns in communication and fundamentals.
“That’s something we’re going to be looking at,” he said.
In response to a question about Haynes being inactive, Macdonald said, “You’ve got to go earn it every day in practice.
“Guys that bring it every day and show up in practice and show up in games and help us win, they’re going to play. If you take a step back, then you’ve got to be accountable.”
Macdonald’s comments don’t bode well for Haynes, but they could mean opportunities for reserves such as Jalen Sundell and Olu Oluwatimi. Both backups were active Sunday due to their positional flexibility, Macdonald said. Rearranging the offensive line in the middle of the season is a bad sign for a team trying to be a championship-caliber club, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see an entirely different lineup in Week 11, given the unit is currently deficient in multiple different areas.
The Seahawks rank 28th in success rate and EPA on runs on third and fourth down with 3 or fewer yards to gain. Macdonald said some of that falls on the coaching staff, but he also said, “We need to get more movement at the point of attack.”
Seattle ranks second-worst in offensive penalties and penalty EPA. Monday, Macdonald lamented the team’s sloppy operation and “self-inflicted penalties.”
“We should have that cleaned up by now,” he said. “We’ve got to get that fixed.”
The defense will struggle (unless pass rush improves)
The loss Sunday marked Seattle’s second game without a sack (Week 6 against San Francisco being the other). The Seahawks were credited with one sack on Josh Allen in Week 8, but on that play, he just fumbled the ball on a scramble without being touched, then inadvertently kicked the ball to a teammate. Seattle recorded two sacks against Bo Nix in Week 1, but in both instances, he scrambled out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage and wasn’t actually taken down.
That’s four of nine games in which the Seahawks didn’t get the quarterback on the ground. Seattle ranks seventh in pressure rate but has turned those pressures into sacks only 16.8 percent of the time, which ranks 25th leaguewide. Pressure generally forces offenses into mistakes, but that hasn’t been the case for Seattle, which ranks 21st in turnovers per drive.
The remaining schedule is unfavorable in that regard. Seattle is scheduled to face only two quarterbacks with above-average SPLINT rates (sacks and interceptions per dropback): Sam Darnold and Caleb Williams. Barring some turnover luck or sudden improvement in their ability to complete sacks, the Seahawks might have a hard time righting the ship on defense, even if the run defense takes steps forward.
JSN will be more involved
Jaxon Smith-Njigba had the best game of his career against the Rams, catching seven passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns. He also had receptions of 40 and 38 yards wiped out by holding penalties. Smith-Njigba also posted his best numbers of the season by target share and air yards per target (17.4).
The latter number is the one that offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb might focus on when self-scouting during the break. As a slot receiver, Smith-Njigba is going to catch more passes near the line of scrimmage. His air yard average ranks 82nd out of 115 receivers who have run at least 100 routes, one spot ahead of the Jets’ Garrett Wilson. But even as a weapon out of the slot, Smith-Njigba has proven on multiple occasions this season that he can be a downfield threat, with or without DK Metcalf on the field.
Smith-Njigba’s big day can be loosely attributed to Seattle facing more single-high coverage, but the remaining schedule suggests there will be similar opportunities. The Bears, Cardinals, Jets and Rams all rank among the top 10 teams in single-high percentage. The pass protection plays a role in how often Seattle takes shots down the field, but Sunday was as bad the protection has been all season, and Smith-Njigba still had a career day. That’s something Grubb should be able to build on if the goal is to put players in the best position to succeed.
DK Metcalf will be Seattle’s only Pro Bowler
The Seahawks had three original-ballot Pro Bowlers last season: Bobby Wagner, Julian Love and Devon Witherspoon. Metcalf and Smith were later added as alternates. All four returning players are having decent seasons, but it feels like a long shot for anyone outside of Metcalf to put up the numbers necessary to be considered among the best at their position (I’m not considering alternates in this prediction). Smith-Njigba has more receptions and as many receiving yards (568) and touchdowns (three) as Metcalf, but even if he’s more involved down the stretch, those numbers figure to cool down a bit.
Smith already has 10 interceptions with just 11 passing touchdowns, and even if he avoids mistakes down the stretch, it’s going to be hard to take votes from guys like Jayden Daniels, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts and Kirk Cousins, to name a few.
Seattle’s defensive backs aren’t as productive on the ball as they were last season. Love benefited from a two-interception game late last year, and there’s a chance for Witherspoon or Riq Woolen, but right now it appears other NFC defensive backs are on pace to outproduce them while playing on better defenses (a sleeper could be Coby Bryant, who is around the ball a lot for a safety).
Up front, outside linebacker Derick Hall is on pace to lead the Seahawks with nine sacks, a total that might not be enough to garner recognition unless it’s paired with some turnovers. Defensive tackle Leonard Williams is also playing at a high level but might not have enough splash plays to be honored ahead of other players putting up better numbers on better units.
This prediction is based on a theme through the first half of the season: Seattle has not consistently maximized the talent on its roster. Smith, Love, Witherspoon, Woolen, Williams, Boye Mafe, Hall and Ken Walker III have elite skills, but that’s not being reflected in the on-field product with any regularity.
The Seahawks will miss the playoffs
The Seahawks have virtually zero margin for error in the second half of the season. That would be tough to handle without being the most penalized team in the league, so when you factor in how often Macdonald’s team gets in its own way, it’s difficult to envision Seattle getting hot enough to win the division, which is the only path I see to earning a postseason berth.
The reality for Seattle is that aside from the penalties, many of the issues that prevented the team from making the playoffs last season are holding this current squad back. Smith has to overcome his supporting cast, play calling included, and that’s just too much to ask of him on a weekly basis. There’s not enough of a commitment to get Walker involved and keep the ball in his hands throughout games. The defense has fatal flaws, particularly on early downs and against play-action passes.
All of this was true to varying degrees last season, and this new regime seemingly hasn’t gotten Seattle any closer to reaching the ceiling Jody Allen and John Schneider were hoping to hit when they overhauled the staff in January.
(Photo of DK Metcalf: Steven Bisig / Imagn Images)
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