If your current fantasy roster still even partially resembles the team you drafted, you’re likely in the minority. For the rest of us normal people who can’t scroll social media without learning of another season-ending injury, help is here!
I’ll be using a data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s MLB waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure fantasy baseball statistics in regard to control, batted ball quality, and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap gems to grab now before the squares figure it out next week. At the very bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, as well as two-start pitchers and speculative adds. (The stats here capture action up to the morning of Thursday, April 18th)
I believe the process is as important as the result, so I’m going to walk you through the theories behind the “hidden gems” pitching and hitting targets (and the numbers I’m looking hardest at) before listing the top adds below. This worked really well for my fantasy football waiver wire column, but I know fantasy football and baseball are different beasts, so feel free to leave any feedback in the comment section.
Here we go…
Starting Pitchers
As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn’t be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are the ability to generate whiffs (first list below) and limit hard contact (second list below). While showing up on one of these two lists may be noise, I’m treating an appearance on both as a signal to immediately pull the trigger.
Available Starters With Multiple >30% Whiff Offerings (+20 Pitches Thrown)
- MacKenzie Gore, WAS — 4-Seamer 30.3%, Curveball 35.3%, Slider 40.9%, Changeup 43.8%
- J.P. France, HOU — Sweeper 30.0%, Changeup 30.8%, Curveball 37.5%
- Ryan Feltner, COL — Changeup 53.1%, Sinker 58.3%
- Reese Olson, DET — Slider 46.4%, Changeup 57.6%
- Ryan Weathers, MIA — Changeup 41.9%, Sweeper 58.3%
- Dane Dunning, TEX — Slider 38.0%, Changeup 57.1%
- Jack Flaherty, DET — Slider 43.1%, Curveball 47.1%
- Reynaldo López, ATL — Slider 37.1%, Curveball 50.0%
- José Soriano, LAA — Slider 41.7%, Curveball 45.0%
- Jordan Hicks, SF — Sweeper 37.9%, Split-Finger 47.4%
- Alec Marsh, KC — Slider 37.5%, Sweeper 46.2%
- Carlos Carrasco, CLE — Sweeper 36.4%, Changeup 45.8%
- José Buttó, NYM — 4-Seamer 35.7%, Changeup 45.5%
- Patrick Sandoval, LAA — Curveball 40.0%, Changeup 40.8%
- Gavin Stone, LAD — Sinker 34.3%, Changeup 42.9%
- DL Hall, MIL — Slider 36.4%, Changeup 38.9%
- Clarke Schmidt, NYY — Curveball 35.3%, Cutter 39.0%
- Luis Gil, NYY — 4-Seam Fastball 35.2%, Slider 36.8%
- Dean Kremer, BAL — Curveball 31.6%, Split-Finger 40.0%
- Kyle Gibson, STL — Changeup 31.6%, Sweeper 38.7%
- Austin Gomber, COL — Curveball 31.3%, Changeup 37.8%
- Paul Blackburn, OAK — Changeup 29.7%, Curveball 33.3%
- Keaton Winn, SF — 4-Seam Fastball 30.8%, Slider 32.1%
Available Starters With <.320 Expected Weighted On-Base Average, Contact-Only (xwOBAcon)
- Luis Gil, NYY — 0.184 xwOBAcon
- Ronel Blanco, HOU — 0.184 xwOBAcon
- Jordan Hicks, SF — 0.263 xwOBAcon
- Reynaldo López, ATL — 0.266 xwOBAcon
- Matt Manning, DET — 0.281 xwOBAcon
- Carlos Carrasco, CLE — 0.281 xwOBAcon
- Joe Ross, MIL — 0.301 xwOBAcon
- Jonathan Cannon, CHW — 0.305 xwOBAcon
- Mitchell Parker, WAS — 0.313 xwOBAcon
- Darius Vines, ATL — 0.320 xwOBAcon
- Zack Littell, TB — 0.320 xwOBAcon
Appearing on both lists/Hidden Gems: Reynaldo López and Carlos Carrasco pop up on both lists, earning the nod for universal rostership. My personal pick of the litter is only on the first list, but I’ve already started making moves to acquire Keaton Winn everywhere. I hate disagreeing with the incomparable Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ model, knowing it’ll likely end in a loss, but I really dig his four-seamer despite the poor 96 grade. Winn boasts excellent velocity (96 mph) and a well above-average movement profile (14.2″ V-Mov, 10.8″ H-Mov) with ~2300 rpm of spin that’s resulted in a +30% whiff rate — and finding a feel for the split-finger again this year could signal the next big pitching breakout.
Hitters
When it comes to hitting, the approach is a little different. Scores of studies have proven the impact of exit velocity and its direct relationship with slugging percentage, so raw power is always a great place to start. I’ve been using 90th percentile EV to better capture frequency than singular batted ball events (“max EV”) but the intended description is the same. The list below also uses a contact quality metric — except this time we’ll pair it with above average chase rates, a great determinant of plate skills. Last, but not least, it’s the Pulled Fly Ball/Line Drive leaderboard — because staying on-brand matters.
Available Hitters With >107 mph 90th Percentile Exit Velocity (min. 20 Batted Ball Events)
- Miguel Sanó, DH, LAA — 112.8 mph EV
- Jo Adell, RF, LAA — 111.9 mph EV
- Giancarlo Stanton, DH, NYY — 110.5 mph EV
- Edward Olivares, RF, PIT — 109.1 mph EV
- Ryan Mountcastle, 1B, BAL — 108.9 mph EV
- Jesús Sánchez, RF, MIA — 108.7 mph EV
- Matt Chapman, 3B, SF — 108.6 mph EV
- Hunter Renfroe, RF, KC — 108.3 mph EV
- Matt Vierling, RF, DET — 107.9 mph EV
- Brenton Doyle, CF, COL — 107.7 mph EV
- Jordan Westburg, 3B, BAL — 107.5 mph EV
- J.D. Davis, 3B, OAK — 107.3 mph EV
- Michael Toglia, 1B, COL — 107.2 mph EV
- Tyler Stephenson, C, CIN — 107.0 mph EV
Available Hitters With <25% Chase Rate And >.400 Expected Weighted On-Base Average, Contact-Only (xwOBAcon); min. 20 Batted Ball Events
- Ryan O’Hearn, 1B BAL — 14.9% Chase% 0.494 xwOBAcon
- Miguel Sanó, DH LAA — 23.3% Chase% 0.472 xwOBAcon
- LaMonte Wade Jr., 1B SF — 16.9% Chase% 0.472 xwOBAcon
- Will Benson, CF CIN — 21.6% Chase% 0.458 xwOBAcon
- Joey Gallo, 1B WSH — 17.1% Chase% 0.445 xwOBAcon
- Lawrence Butler, RF OAK — 21.8% Chase% 0.441 xwOBAcon
- Jake Cronenworth, 1B SD — 23.7% Chase% 0.440 xwOBAcon
- Jared Walsh, 1B TEX — 20.3% Chase% 0.426 xwOBAcon
- Richie Palacios, RF TB — 22.0% Chase% 0.412 xwOBAcon
- Edouard Julien, 2B MIN — 14.7% Chase% 0.412 xwOBAcon
- Matt Vierling, RF DET — 22.2% Chase% 0.408 xwOBAcon
- Jurickson Profar, LF SD — 24.9% Chase% 0.403 xwOBAcon
- Josh Rojas, 3B SEA — 22.2% Chase% 0.400 xwOBAcon
Available Hitters With +10 Pulled Fly Ball/Line Drives; min. 20 Batted Ball Events
- Michael Conforto, LF, SF — 15 Pulled FBLD
- Steven Kwan, LF, CLE — 14 Pulled FBLD
- Logan O’Hoppe, C, LAA — 13 Pulled FBLD
- Jorge Polanco, 2B, SEA — 12 Pulled FBLD
- Jurickson Profar, LF, SD — 12 Pulled FBLD
- Tyrone Taylor, LF, NYM — 12 Pulled FBLD
- James Outman, CF, LAD — 11 Pulled FBLD
- Bryan De La Cruz, LF, MIA — 11 Pulled FBLD
- Will Benson, CF, CIN — 10 Pulled FBLD
- Mitch Haniger, RF, SEA — 10 Pulled FBLD
- Brenton Doyle, CF, COL — 10 Pulled FBLD
- Jake Cronenworth, 1B, SD — 10 Pulled FBLD
- Shea Langeliers, C, OAK — 10 Pulled FBLD
- Joey Gallo, 1B, WSH — 10 Pulled FBLD
- Gavin Sheets, 1B, CWS — 10 Pulled FBLD
- Spencer Torkelson, 1B, DET — 10 Pulled FBLD
Ranking players who appear on multiple lists/Hidden Gems:
- Will Benson, CF CIN
- Brenton Doyle, CF, COL
- Jurickson Profar, LF SD
- Jake Cronenworth, 1B SD
- Joey Gallo, 1B WSH
- Matt Vierling, RF, DET
- Miguel Sanó, DH LAA
If your league still has Will Benson or Brenton Doyle available on the waiver wire, make them a priority now. Same can be said for Jordan Westburg if you need an infielder — I’m buying rest-of-season on all three. Also, sadly, the Miguel Sanó breakout has been put temporarily on hold, as he’s been relegated to a strict timeshare (trumpet sound).
Relief Pitchers
Targeting roles over skills is something I’ve always preached when drafting closers but zeroing in on stat combinations like elite command plus swing-and-miss-ability could help us identify the potential next-men-up, especially in more vulnerable bullpens. If you want to go deeper on RPs, I also strongly suggest Greg Jewett’s weekly column — nobody does relievers better.
Relievers With >15% Swinging Strike And <34% Ball Rates (min 5 IP)
- Hunter Harvey, WSN — 17.0% SwStr%, 24.6% Ball%
- Joe Jimenez, ATL — 17.0% SwStr%, 26.4% Ball%
- Ryan Helsley, STL — 19.8% SwStr%, 27.0% Ball%
- Yennier Cano, BAL — 16.8% SwStr%, 28.9% Ball%
- A.J. Minter, ATL — 16.2% SwStr%, 29.1% Ball%
- Hunter Stratton, PIT — 17.5% SwStr%, 30.8% Ball%
- Yimi Garcia, TOR — 16.2% SwStr%, 31.6% Ball%
- Chris Martin, BOS — 15.5% SwStr%, 31.7% Ball%
- JoJo Romero, STL — 17.0% SwStr%, 32.0% Ball%
- Jason Adam, TBR — 16.5% SwStr%, 33.9% Ball%
Top waiver wire adds by position
CATCHER
- Ryan Jeffers, MIN — +10 Teams
- Jonah Heim, TEX — +12 Teams
- Elias Diaz, COL — 12/15 Teams
- Rene Pinto, TB — +15 Teams
- Danny Jansen, TOR — +15 Teams
FIRST BASE
- Ryan Mountcastle, BAL — +10 Teams
- Alex Kirilloff, MIN — +12 Teams
- Elehuris Montero, COL — 12/15 Teams
- LaMonte Wade, SF — 12/15 Teams
- Garrett Cooper, CHC — +15 Teams
- Miguel Sanó, LAA — +15 Teams/Only
SECOND BASE
- Jordan Westburg, BAL — +10 Teams
- Brendan Donovan, STL — 12/15 Teams
- Amed Rosario, TB — 12/15 Teams
- Curtis Mead, TB — 12/15 Teams
- Mauricio Dubón, HOU — +15 Teams
- Alan Trejo, COL — +15 Teams
SHORTSTOP
- Jackson Merrill, SD — +10 Teams
- Masyn Winn, STL — +12 Teams
- Jeremy Peña, HOU — +12 Teams
- Amed Rosario, TB — 12/15 Teams
- Orlando Arcia, ATL — 12/15 Teams
- Javier Baez, DET — +15 Teams
THIRD BASE
- Matt Chapman, SF — +10 Teams
- Eugenio Suarez, ARI — +12 Teams
- Brett Baty, NYM — +12 Teams
- Jose Miranda, MIN — 12/15 Teams
- Abraham Toro, OAK — +15 Teams
- Josh Smith, TEX — +15 Teams
OUTFIELD
- Colton Cowser, BAL
- Daulton Varsho, TOR
- Will Benson, CIN
- Bryan De La Cruz, MIA
- Esteury Ruiz, OAK
- Jesse Winker, WAS
- Austin Martin, MIN
- Jurickson Profar, SD
- Blake Perkins, MIL
- Harrison Bader, NYM
- Edward Olivares, PIT
- J.J. Bleday, OAK
- Ryan O’Hearn, BAL**^
- Robbie Grossman, CHW
- Brandon Marsh, PHI
- Charlie Blackmon, COL
- Jacob Young, WAS*
* – Prioritize for stolen bases
** – Prioritize for power
^ – Strong-side platoon
STARTERS
- Jared Jones, PIT
- Tanner Houck, BOS
- Reynaldo Lopez, ATL
- Keaton Winn, SF*
- Ronel Blanco, HOU
- Brady Singer, KC
- Alec Marsh, KC
- Jack Flaherty, DET
- Luis Gil, NYY
- Matt Waldron, SD
- Chris Paddack, MIN
- Ben Brown, CHC
- Trevor Rogers, MIA*
- Spencer Turnbull, PHI
- Tyler Wells, BAL
- Zack Littell, TB
- JP Sears, OAK*
- Jordan Wicks, CHC
- Cole Irvin, BAL
- Ryan Weathers, MIA
- Louie Varland, MIN
- Javier Assad, CHC
- Logan Allen, CLE
- Ryan Feltner, COL
- Eric Fedde, CHW*
- Joe Ross, MIL*
- Paul Blackburn, OAK
- Joe Boyle, OAK
- Spencer Arighetti, HOU
- Trevor Williams, WAS
* – Upcoming two-start week
RELIEVERS
- James McArthur, KC
- Kirby Yates, TEX
- Jeff Hoffman, PHI
- Joel Payamps, MIL
- Chad Green, TOR
- Griffin Jax, MIN
- Ian Hamilton, NYY
- Justin Slaten, BOS
Ranking Next Week’s Available Two-Steps
- Keaton Winn, SF — vs. NYM (Jose Quintana), vs. PIT (Bailey Falter)
- Trevor Rogers, MIA — @ ATL (Reynaldo López), vs. WAS (Patrick Corbin)
- JP Sears, OAK — @ NYY (Carlos Rodón), @ BAL (Cole Irvin)
- Joe Ross ,MIL — @ PIT (Jared Jones), vs. NYY (Carlos Rodón)
- Erick Fedde, CHW — @ MIN (Pablo López), vs. TB (Zack Littell)
- Wade Miley, MIL — @ PIT (Bailey Falter), vs. NYY (Marcus Stroman)
- Tommy Henry, ARI — @ STL (Lance Lynn), @ SEA (Logan Gilbert)
- Bailey Falter, PIT — vs. MIL (Wade Miley), @ SF (Keaton Winn)
- Jonathan Cannon, CHW — @ MIN (Chris Paddack), vs. TB (Aaron Civale)
- Austin Gomber, COL — vs. SD (Dylan Cease), vs. HOU (J.P. France)
- Patrick Corbin, WAS — vs. LAD (TBD), @ MIA (Trevor Rogers )
UNIVERSAL SP STASH CANDIDATES, BY PROXIMITY
- Walker Buehler, LAD — Next rehab start could be his last before heading back to Hollywood.
- Paul Skenes, PIT — It’s coming — better to be a month early than one minute late.
- Christian Scott, NYM — Obliterating the competition in Triple-A and it’s only a matter of time before his phone rin — stash him now if you have the space.
Thanks so much for reading — the comments, feedback and overall response to the article have bordered on overwhelming. Please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below with any comments or questions. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my brand new best-selling Substack page for all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.
(Top photo of Keaton Winn: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)
