A player who arrives from junior hockey to score at a point-per-game pace in the minors is a virtual lock to play some or all of their NHL career on a skill line.
Those players are destined to spend about half a year in the AHL.
Edmonton Oilers fans might be in for such an experience this fall.
Junior impact offensive forward Matt Savoie will arrive on the scene and is ticketed to play for the Bakersfield Condors.
If he delivers an impact performance in the season’s first 20 games, there’s a good chance he will be an early recall to the Oilers. Why? You can’t keep that kind of skill in the minors.
Here’s the list from the last 30 years of Oilers AHL 20-year-old rookie forwards who scored a point per game in the AHL, along with their AHL games played totals in those seasons.
| Player | Year | Pts-Game | AHL Games |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Miro Satan |
1994-95 |
1.6 |
25 |
|
Ryan Smyth |
1996-97 |
1.2 |
9 |
It’s a short list because it’s rare. It’s also indicative of how long fans should expect to see Savoie in Bakersfield if he can score at a point per game.
It’s possible the Oilers place him in a role that suppresses offence. If he is placed at centre and the coaching staff deploys two veteran AHL checkers with the young phenom, even-strength points will not come easily. Offence from prospect forwards entering pro hockey is an area the coaching staff in Bakersfield has had an issue with in the past, it could be a factor in Savoie’s development.
Savoie should see power-play time, even as a rookie pro. He has that much pure talent.
Recent AHL rookies who delivered at a point-per-game pace are rare but do exist. These names are further proof that a quick trip to California may be in the offing for Savoie. Here are the AHL rookie forwards who performed at a point per game at 20, and their AHL games played before being elevated to the NHL:
| Player | Year | Pts-Game | AHL games |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Logan Stankhoven |
2023-24 |
1.21 |
47 |
|
Matt Coronato |
2023-24 |
1.02 |
41 |
|
Jack Quinn |
2021-22 |
1.36 |
45 |
Savoie played briefly in the AHL last season, at 19. He scored five points in six AHL games, suggesting he may be able to clear the point-per-game hurdle with the Condors in 2024-25.
His usage by coach Colin Chaulk will be a major factor in Savoie’s point total this coming season. If the rookie gets feature time at even strength and on the power play, he’s a strong candidate to make it happen.
It’s also possible that the NHL depth chart opens up opportunities. A quick look at the NHL depth chart on right wing suggests that age and injury may give Savoie a chance in 2024-25.
Condors in Oilers training camp 2024
Head coach Kris Knoblauch will spend his first training camp with the Oilers and Condors this fall. It’s an opportunity for men who played in the AHL last season to make a strong impression on the coach.
An AHL team can help a new NHL coach by expanding the pool of talent available to him.
When Jay Woodcroft was initially hired by the Oilers from Bakersfield as coach midseason in 2021-22, he brought in several AHL players he believed in.
Philip Broberg and Markus Niemelainen were immediately recalled; Stuart Skinner and Dylan Holloway also found their way as NHL players.
The Edmonton roster has some issues, including right defence (second and third pair unproven there) and fourth-line centre (preferably a righty).
Where there’s a will
Fans shouldn’t get ahead of themselves, but men like Lane Pederson, Phil Kemp, plus (later) Noah Philp and Max Wanner could be in play. All should see some action during the preseason schedule for the big club.
It’s guaranteed that all these men will show up in great shape for training camp, and work extra time to impress the coaching staff.
Stories and anecdotes often become lore in sports, and the same holds true when discussing hopefuls in front of an NHL camp.
In the fall of 2007, Kyle Brodziak arrived in training camp as one of several candidates for the fourth-line centre job. During this period Oilers coach Craig MacTavish, when asked about the young hopefuls, was famously quoted as saying “they all look good in suits” to drive home the point that it’s what these young men do on the ice that counts.
Brodziak’s main competition came from two first-round selections (Marc Pouliot and Rob Schremp) who also played centre. Brodziak was a seventh-round pick, with almost no draft pedigree to recommend him.
Brodziak won that job.
From the start of the preseason schedule, he did everything well. He won faceoffs, found his way to scoring areas, forechecked like a demon, passed well, offered support on defence, marking his man closely while checking.
On the night of Sept. 18, 2007, Brodziak had one of the best preseason games by an Oilers prospect in team history. He scored two goals, plus an assist and so impressed the coaching staff it was all they could talk about postgame.
A coach like MacTavish no doubt saw some of himself in Brodziak, who won NHL work that September and would go on to play just shy of 1,000 games in the league.
That’s the promise for each of the hopefuls coming to Oilers camp.
Some fans believe there are no openings, and are hoping for multiple PTO contracts to veteran NHL players looking for a chance to win a Stanley Cup ring.
A smart team looks to youth, not just for value contracts but to solve roster problems with a longer-term solution.
In the days to come, we’ll find out about PTO offers and get an idea about what the coaching staff thinks of the incoming group.
Keep your eye on Savoie. He’s the most explosive prospect in the system at this time.
Pay some attention to the others, too. There might just be a Brodziak in the group.
(Photo of Matt Savoie: Joshua Bessex / Getty Images)
