The new UEFA Champions League format has provided several early twists and turns. For Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester City, Bayern Munich and AC Milan to be forced to win a play-off to reach the knockout stage was fascinating to watch – and of course, only three of those five made it to the Round of 16.
This new structure has added an extra layer of intrigue and, in turn, an additional layer of difficulty for the bookmakers as they attempt to keep track of the ever-changing outright winner odds.
Over the last month, the pendulum has swung away from Liverpool and back towards Real Madrid, with Barcelona lurking nearby. Let’s analyse the fluctuations in closer detail.
Liverpool were deservedly outright favourites in January
The Reds’ eight-game league phase campaign ended on a bumpy note – a 3-2 loss to PSV Eindhoven, in which only two regular starters (Cody Gakpo and Andy Robertson) started – but up until that point? Legendary stuff.
Seven wins from seven, which included defeating Milan, Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid, saw them storm to the top of the standings.
Very few could conjure up a legitimate argument against the idea that Liverpool were the best team in Europe, which was reflected in the odds. Bookmakers considered them favourites to lift the trophy and priced them at 4/1 at the end of January.
Barcelona and Arsenal, who finished second and third in the league phase, were priced at 6/1. That made sense, as Barça pushed Liverpool for the top spot throughout, while the Gunners were rock-solid defensively, conceding just three goals in eight games.
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The bookmakers always believed in Madrid
The bookmakers always showed quiet faith in Madrid’s Champions League hopes. Los Blancos were priced at 13/2 to win it and considered fourth-favourites even before they beat Man City.
Another way of looking at it is that the market believed they were more likely to win the tournament than five teams (Inter, Leverkusen, Atlético Madrid, Lille and Aston Villa) who had already qualified for the round of 16 ahead of them.
So, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that as soon as Madrid dispensed City 6-4 on aggregate, Carlo Ancelotti’s troops marched into pole position to win Europe’s top competition. There was a sense in the market that they were legitimate threats, but there was no justification for pricing them as favourites until a round of 16 berth was confirmed.
Is confidence in a Madrid win now justified?
It’s easy to be seduced by the idea of Madrid winning yet another Champions League. They are the most successful team in the competition’s history (15 wins) and have won six of the last 11 campaigns.
But is beating an incredibly flawed Man City side enough to inspire confidence in them as outright favourites? Or are they suddenly a better bet to win it than Liverpool?
While Los Blancos have battled through the play-off and toiled against Barcelona and Atlético in an incredibly tight La Liga title race, the Reds have topped the league phase and sailed clear at the top of the Premier League, opening up a huge 13-point gap to Arsenal in second place. That eases pressure and allows Slot to focus and prioritise in a way Ancelotti cannot.
True, Kylian Mbappé is finding his rhythm in the Spanish capital and has scored a frightening 14 goals since the turn of the year, but Mohamed Salah is in the middle of his own attempt to set club records.
It’s worth considering that both teams have landed on the tougher side of the knockout bracket and will face a challenging round of 16 tie. Liverpool takes on PSG while Real meet fierce rivals Atlético.
Should the favourites actually be Barcelona?
On the softer side of the bracket, Barcelona have been handed a more straightforward path to at least the semi-finals, as you’d expect them to overcome Benfica and then the winner of Borussia Dortmund vs Lille.
La Blaugrana remain second-favourites to win outright, wedged between Real Madrid and Liverpool, although their price has shortened as the bookmakers have taken note of their potentially easier fixtures. Arguably, if anyone should have dethroned Liverpool as outright favourites, it should have been Barça, not Madrid.
After all, it’s Hansi Flick’s men who are currently top of La Liga, having already beaten Los Blancos 4-0 and 5-2 this season. They scored more goals (28) than anyone in the league phase, with Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha and Lamine Yamal hitting top form.
Naturally, Real Madrid carry a level of expectation and belief that can only develop through serial winning, and that’s played into their odds. But perhaps they’re commanding too much faith; unlike Liverpool and Barcelona, at no point have they genuinely been in the conversation for Europe’s best team this season. They’ve been given a potential gauntlet of opponents to reach the final – while juggling a La Liga title tilt on the side.
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(Photo of Kylian Mbappé and Jude Bellingham: David Ramos / Getty Images)
