St. Louis Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has been candid about the team’s intention to trade star third baseman Nolan Arenado and had been hopeful a suitable trade partner would emerge before the start of the new year.
In Mozeliak’s defense, the Houston Astros appeared ready to deal in December. What Mozeliak did not plan for was Arenado exercising his full no-trade clause to block the trade.
We’ve entered the new year (happy 2025, by the way). Pitchers and catchers report in five weeks — Feb. 10, to be exact. Since the Cardinals’ ill-fated attempts to trade Arenado to Houston, there has been next to no traction in his trade talks.
“The update would be it’s been very quiet,” Mozeliak said in a recent interview on KMOX regarding Arenado’s market. “If we have the ability to find him a place he desires, it’s something we are going to try to do. If not, he will have to be a part of our club moving forward.”
One of the best to ever do it.
Congratulations to Nolan Arenado on yet another selection as a @RawlingsSports Gold Glove Finalist!#ForTheLou pic.twitter.com/iuxxiZ7GvW
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) October 15, 2024
The Cardinals’ efforts to trade Arenado are at a standstill, which has stalled their offseason plans. Trading him was previously categorized as a top priority for the club, and being unable to do so would have severe ramifications for the 2025 roster.
The club’s primary reason for wanting a trade is to create financial flexibility. The Cardinals are lowering payroll and have cited multiple reasons: their restructured television deal, which saw St. Louis take a pay cut of roughly 25 percent in 2025; a projected drop in ticket sales and gate revenue this season; and reallocation of funds to the organization’s player development system — a multiyear project. If the Cardinals cannot find a way to clear Arenado’s salary from their books, they will have to resort to other measures, including shopping pitchers previously planned to be a part of the team.
The financial stipulations have complicated the team’s trade attempts. The Cardinals will not take on a large sum of Arenado’s contract just for the sake of moving him. They are looking for a team to take on the majority of his remaining $74 million over three seasons. The situation becomes more complex when factoring in Arenado’s full no-trade clause. His longtime agent, Joel Wolfe, was clear at MLB’s Winter Meetings about what his client is looking for in a landing spot.
“A team that he thinks is going to win now and consistently for the remainder of his career,” Wolfe said. “He wants a team that has the throttle down. … That he believes he can jump right in and they’re going to win right now.”
Still, Wolfe also offered an important caveat, one evidenced by Arenado’s veto to Houston: “(Arenado) is in a good place with the Cardinals. He’s not going to go just to go.”
While several teams inquired about Arenado in early December, the number of Arenado’s preferred destinations is small and it’s unclear if any of those teams are interested. The Los Angeles Dodgers were long believed to be a top choice for the Southern California native, but they were not engaged in Arenado talks this winter. The New York Yankees checked in and balked at the Cardinals’ price point. It remains to be seen if the Boston Red Sox are true players for Arenado, as they remain in play for free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman.
The Cardinals will monitor Bregman, who also has been connected to the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays. Multiple league sources indicate the Red Sox represent Arenado’s last chance to get dealt before the 2025 season. If Boston misses on Bregman, it could pivot to trading for Arenado. However, that move likely would be contingent on moving Rafael Devers to first base (though Arenado is willing to switch positions, he remains the stronger third baseman of the two) and possibly trading Triston Casas. It is unclear if that is a scenario the Red Sox would consider. It is also unclear if Boston would be willing to take on most of Arenado’s salary.
The alternative reality? Arenado remains in St. Louis for at least the first half of the season, and the Cardinals revisit his market ahead of the trade deadline. This certainly would not be an ideal situation for either party. Not only would the Cardinals likely have to pivot to trading other players, but also Arenado’s presence at third base would create an infield logjam.
The Cardinals want to provide opportunities for their young core this season and have used that rationale to explain why they’ve stayed out of the free-agent market. (St. Louis is one of six teams, including the Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Milwaukee Brewers, Miami Marlins and Minnesota Twins, that has not spent one dollar in free agency this offseason.)
The plan is for Nolan Gorman to be an everyday player this season, with the majority of those reps coming at the hot corner. With Arenado at third, Gorman slides to either second base or designated hitter, depending on the matchup. That would curb Alec Burleson’s playing time, already set to decline with Willson Contreras moving to first base. Brendan Donovan would remain a super-utility player, but the outfield also would be crowded — the Cardinals are ensuring everyday playing time for Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker. Fringe players such as Thomas Saggese and Luken Baker would likely be on the outside looking in, at least to start the season.
From Arenado’s perspective, the 12-year veteran would be entering his age-34 season playing for a team that has already made player development its top priority. Mozeliak still wants to field a competitive club, hence his reluctance to trade All-Star closer Ryan Helsley, and the National League Central is far from a powerhouse division. But this year’s Cardinals team falls far short of postseason caliber as currently designed, and Arenado has been vocal about wanting to play competitive baseball for the remainder of his career.
The remainder of this offseason and the Cardinals’ plans for 2025 rely on their ability to trade their marquee player. That is something Mozeliak has only so much control over. The organization’s and player’s trade requirements were always going to make this much easier said than done.
Now Arenado and the Cardinals are at the mercy of the industry, trapped in a holding pattern as baseball’s countdown to spring training ticks louder.
(Photo of Nolan Arenado and Nolan Gorman: Jeff Roberson / Associated Press)
