SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Marcus Freeman knows what’s at stake for No. 5 Notre Dame this weekend when it faces USC at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
Win, and Notre Dame will host a College Football Playoff game next month. Lose, and the Irish might be out of the field altogether, depending on how the rest of college football’s final acts unfold. As tempting as it would be to focus on what comes after Saturday’s rivalry game (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS), finishing the deal matters more than what comes afterward.
“If you don’t understand how good this opponent is, if you don’t understand how much of a challenge this opponent will bring on Saturday, then the fault lies within yourself,” Freeman said. “That’s what I’m going to continue to remind our guys. Yes, the things we’ve done in the past that have given us an opportunity to be in this moment where if we win, we’re in. That’s what they say. You win and you’re in.”
Notre Dame (10-1) has developed into more of a sure thing under Freeman during his third year, especially during this nine-game streak. Since losing against Northern Illinois, the Irish have handed eight of their nine opponents their worst loss of the year, just missing that mark against Virginia.
Doing the same at USC (6-5) won’t require a blowout, as the Trojans’ losses have all been by single digits and they’ve led in the fourth quarter of each of those games. But Notre Dame hasn’t let the fourth quarter matter much lately, leaving no doubt long before then.
Can Notre Dame finish its regular season with another impressive win? Three keys and one prediction for Saturday:
Hit. Tackle. Repeat
It’s hard to know exactly how well Notre Dame’s secondary has tackled this season; it’s just clear the Irish have excelled. Notre Dame’s top six defensive backs were charged with 40 missed tackles, according to Pro Football Focus, in each of the past two seasons when the Irish had one of the best pass defenses in the country. Through 11 games, this secondary has been charged with just 31 missed tackles, slightly better than the past two years.
It just feels like Notre Dame’s secondary has been even better than that, considering the Irish rank No. 1 nationally in pass efficiency defense, No. 2 in scoring and No. 3 in yards per play allowed.
“Sometimes the window to your soul on defense is how well your defensive backs tackle,” defensive coordinator Al Golden said. “And right now, whether it’s corners or nickels or safeties, they’re leading by example. They’re not afraid to throw it in there. They’re using great form, great technique, and that sets a high bar for your defense.”
USC might test that considering its raw material at wide receiver, even with new quarterback Jayden Maiava replacing Miller Moss. The Irish haven’t faced a competent (traditional) passing offense since Louisville, the only opponent ranked in the top 60 nationally in pass efficiency.
USC is 2-0 with Jayden Maiava as the starting quarterback. (Gary A. Vasquez / Imagn Images)
The Trojans check in at No. 70.
In Maiava’s two starts, he’s 44-of-70 for 480 yards, four touchdowns and one interception during wins over Nebraska and UCLA, two of the worst pass defenses in the country. Notre Dame represents a different kind of challenge — not just in talent and scheme, but in mentality.
As Freeman said before kickoff last week, violence has become Notre Dame’s standard operating procedure.
“We’ve never talked about playing any other way, so I’m glad that’s how they want to play,” Golden said. “Every defense has its own DNA. If that’s what ours is becoming, then that’s great. But that’s completely up to the players.”
Bounce back in the red zone
This isn’t so much a problem to solve as a tweak to make.
Notre Dame scored touchdowns on four of its six drives into the red zone last weekend against Army. That’s fine. It’s just that Freeman didn’t exactly see it that way after the Irish failed to score after getting to first-and-goal from the Black Knights’ 5-yard line in the first half. Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock called four consecutive runs up the middle that basically went nowhere.
“You can look at it and go, ‘We’re nitpicking,’ … but those are crucial. I got to do a better job,” Denbrock said. “I got to quit being so stubborn. And there were some opportunities to maybe throw in a play-action pass or something like that, which we should have probably gotten to. That’s more on me than it is the players.”
Red zone efficiency has been a Notre Dame strength all season, whether the offense was humming or not. The Irish are No. 9 nationally in red zone touchdown percentage, crossing the goal line on 75.6 percent of their red zone trips. Riley Leonard’s legs have a lot to do with that. So do Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. But for the offense to reach its potential, the line’s play needs to continue its ascent.
Denbrock said the performance against Army might have been the unit’s best.
“We got to play with our feet on their side of the line of scrimmage. And if we do that, we got some really talented young men who touch it who are going to do some really good things,” Denbrock said. “So I thought they did a great job of that in particular. And then being aggressive while also recognizing and passing off their movements and things, I thought that they played as well as they have all year.”
Can Notre Dame kick it?
Freeman gave Mitch Jeter a vote of confidence this week after Notre Dame’s starting kicker missed a 48-yard field goal attempt against Army and also had a 30-yard try blocked as the line failed to protect. And that’s what Freeman should say because there’s no point in questioning a player in a news conference.
But ever since Jeter suffered that groin injury against Stanford, there’s little evidence to support Freeman’s faith in the kicking game. Walk-on Eric Goins has replaced Jeter as the kickoff specialist without much issue. But field goals have been an adventure Notre Dame has struggled to navigate. Spread among Jeter and walk-ons Zac Yoakam and Marcello Diomede, the Irish are 3-of-10 on field goals in the past five games.
And even the makes don’t inspire much confidence.
Jeter hit from 28 yards against Florida State. Yoakam connected from 32 yards against Navy and 42 yards against Georgia Tech. That means the yardage line for Notre Dame to believe it can make a field goal is the opponent’s 25, which probably impacts how Freeman would manage the game.
“Mitch Jeter has always been our best option,” Freeman said. “(Last) week, he hit that ball better than he’s been able to hit in a long time. The one he missed … he hit that ball really well, and that was from a yard line that we weren’t previously able to do.”
Jeter is just 6-of-11 on field goals this season after missing only two attempts in his career at South Carolina. The transfer drilled two 46-yarders at Texas A&M in the season opener before having both of his attempts blocked a week later against Northern Illinois.
Prediction
Historically speaking, there’s no reason to think Notre Dame will blow out USC on Saturday afternoon in the Coliseum. The Irish are 3-7 over their last 10 trips there, with each of those wins by single digits against Trojans teams that averaged six losses. This USC team is a lot like the ones Notre Dame beat when Clay Helton or Lane Kiffin ran the show. The difference is this Irish team is playing at another level. Notre Dame has the top point differential in the country and has led the nation in scoring offense and scoring defense since Oct. 1. That quality of play should be enough for Notre Dame to close the regular season with at least a little breathing room.
Notre Dame 28, USC 13.
(Top photo of Riley Leonard and Jeremiyah Love: Robin Alam / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
