Inside: How far (and why) Shedeur Sanders fell in Dane Brugler’s latest mock, plus other notable roster changes, including the Jets cutting their star receiver.
But first, a massive trade that broke about an hour ago.
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What Dianna’s Hearing: Chicago gains All-Pro blocker
The Chiefs are shuffling their offensive line, while the Bears are remaking theirs. This morning, Kansas City traded two-time All-Pro guard Joe Thuney to Chicago for a 2026 fourth-round pick.
Thuney, 32, played primarily left guard since joining the Chiefs as a free agent before the 2021 season. However, with the team struggling to find an answer at left tackle last season, he moved to the outside, staying there through Super Bowl LIX. He is a four-time Super Bowl champion, winning two with New England and two more with the Chiefs. The move comes after Kansas City franchise-tagged 25-year-old free-agent guard Trey Smith.
The Bears’ offseason priority remains clear: Protect Caleb Williams. They sent a sixth-round pick to the Rams for guard Jonah Jackson on Tuesday, and now add Thuney to their starting five. We have more here.
Back to you, Jacob.
Shedeur Sanders is falling. To where? Why?
Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo: Andrew Wevers / Getty Images
Whatever The Athletic’s Dane Brugler does during the NFL combine, it works.
Revisiting his 2024 post-combine mock evidences that. Most of his top 12 picks matched players with their actual landing spots. The deeper into a draft you go, the harder it is to predict, but some of his later first-round projections also hit, like pairing the Rams with edge Jared Verse, Cowboys with OT Tyler Guyton and Chiefs with WR Xavier Worthy.
Yesterday, Dane shared his 2025 post-combine mock draft. This update suggests certain prospects impressed teams during interviews, drills, measurements and medicals. Others didn’t.
The five most notable movers, when compared to Dane’s January 15 mock, with his thoughts in quotes:
Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty (+14 spots). No first-round prospect’s stock improved more than that of the Heisman runner-up, whom Dane now sees the Raiders drafting at No. 6: “Adding Jeanty to Chip Kelly’s offense would vastly upgrade a unit lacking an identity.” (NFL executives agree.) Las Vegas ran for just 1,357 yards in 2024, the second-worst mark since 2021.
LSU OT Will Campbell (+8). Even if Campbell’s relatively short arms mean he spends his career at guard, Dane has the 6-foot-6, 319-pounder moving up to the Jaguars at No. 5: “Campbell is one of the more well-liked players in the draft class by teams, because of his tape and talent.”
Ohio State OT Josh Simmons (-19). Ouch. The biggest post-combine faller to remain in Dane’s first round, he slips to the Commanders at No. 29. “If not for the knee injury he suffered early last season, Simmons would be long gone by this point.” Some medical concerns might linger, though NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport suggests Simmons is in decent shape on that front.
From our Combine coverage: #Ohio State OT Josh Simmons had very positive medical evaluations in Indianapolis and is healing well, sources say. He is a first-round pick, despite the injury. pic.twitter.com/laWi7I86yQ
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 2, 2025
Michigan CB Will Johnson (-12). Strong eyes, smooth feet and coverage IQ are not enough to stop his tumble, as injury concerns remain a factor. That could allow the Bengals to pounce on the game-changing corner at No. 17. Dane has noted that scouts are mixed on Johnson, with his long speed a major concern. If he runs a fast 40 at Michigan’s pro day, that could change. Prior to a disappointing 2024, many considered him the best corner prospect since Sauce Gardner.
Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders (-15). A drastic fall to the Steelers at No. 21 suggests he didn’t gain many fans during the combine, where he also didn’t work out. Mike DeFabo unpacked why this landing could make sense for Pittsburgh, though. One reason: “Mike Tomlin is a fan of players with NFL bloodlines.”
You can find Dane’s full post-combine mock draft here, where he wrote that Sanders “could go in the top six or fall out of the first round entirely — and neither outcome would be a shock.” Let’s talk some more about the most polarizing prospect in this year’s draft.
What you should know about Deion’s son
Before we share some tape, I asked my editor — Jason Kirk, who is also our college football newsletter writer — what NFL fans should know about Shedeur Sanders’ game. His answer:
“Even accounting for how difficult it can be to objectively describe anything about this wildly hyped era of Colorado football, Sanders still feels like a paradox.
- “He often held onto the ball forever, like a Madden player hunting big plays. At CU, he lost 33.9 sack yards per game, by far the country’s most. His offensive line was usually a team weakness, but it wasn’t that bad.
- “Yet his completion percentage of 71.8 is the highest in FBS history, making him more of a choosy freelancer than a reckless gunslinger. Once he eventually throws the ball, good things are likely.
“I’m convinced at least one team will talk themselves into him in round one. Owners like selling tickets, if nothing else.”
One team that needs to convince fans to buy tickets? The Browns, whom NFL executives projected to pick Sanders at No. 2. Spicy.
What does the tape show?
The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen shared a film study on why teams are down on Sanders. Let’s start with the positives.
His biggest strength is accuracy. As Jason noted, Sanders completes passes at historically high rates. That was no fluke. He excels at reading coverages, making progressions and attacking the middle of the field — areas where most young quarterbacks struggle:
He’s also tough, an above-average athlete and a strong leader. These positives give him a higher floor than most. But his ceiling feels limited. Before we touch on each flaw, Ted summarizes them well:
“Sanders certainly doesn’t fit the mold of quarterbacks picked in the first round in recent years. Teams are looking for plus traits at the position. They’re looking for the next Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or Justin Herbert because dynamic quarterbacks are the needle-movers.
“Yes, a classic pocket passer with a limited physical skill set certainly has a place in the league, and traits like reading defenses and accuracy will always be important, but they’d better be an ace in the pocket to excel.”
The biggest issues Ted identified. Sanders …
Lacks arm strength. If he’s late on a read, it’s a difficult completion for Sanders, whose passes don’t arrive fast enough. “In the NFL, he has to throw with A-plus anticipation in the middle of the field because defenders close faster and will either make a play on the ball or crush his receiver,” wrote Ted.
Rarely completes tight-window throws. Lacking the zip needed for throws to travel on a straight line, Sanders passes don’t have the pace necessary to hit receivers perfectly in stride. Many are underthrown.
Not accurate enough, ironically. Joe Montana made a weaker arm work, but as Ted explains, Sanders’ passes aren’t pinpoint enough to compensate for a lack of arm strength: “He’s an accurate passer, but that accuracy isn’t elite and it gets severely affected when he’s pressured. If he doesn’t have a solid base, he doesn’t generate enough power to throw consistently off-platform.” He’s a strong processor, but not yet strong enough.
Poor pocket presence. When watching tape, Sanders impressed me with his willingness to absorb a hit, if that’s what it took to get a pass out. Unfortunately, playing behind Colorado’s poor line led to him often bailing too early. Ted shared this example:
Sanders also rarely threw the ball beyond the line of scrimmage (rankings as the 112th quarterback in air yards per throw, among qualifying passers) and played in a relatively limited scheme. Throwing at the Shrine Bowl and combine could have helped dispel some of these narratives, but Sanders refused to do either.
Best comp: If Sanders improves in those areas, he becomes a healthy version of Chad Pennington (who retired as the NFL’s all-time leader in completion percentage after a 10-year career) or a Brock Purdy type, thriving in the right system.
Worst case: The college completion percentage leaderboard is littered with warning signs. Mac Jones, Colt McCoy, Zach Wilson and even The Athletic’s own Chase Daniel had college seasons with completion percentages of 70-plus. All were strong QB2s in the NFL. None were worth first-round picks. (Sorry, Chase!)
If you want the full picture, Ted’s film review is worth your time. One reader called it the “best article on Sanders, ever.”
Around the NFL
Only two players were tagged yesterday: Bengals WR Tee Higgins and the Chiefs’ Smith. That’s the lowest number since 1994. (Also yesterday, we explained tags here.) Fallout:
- Vikings 27-year-old QB Sam Darnold will test free agency, though beat reporter Alec Lewis noted a return to Minnesota is still possible. Why not tag and trade? If Darnold signs a lucrative extension elsewhere, the Vikings can receive a 2026 compensatory pick that might be better than any trade return.
- Cowboys DT Osa Odighizuwa, one of the most underrated players in the NFL, struck a four-year, $80 million deal to remain in Dallas. By avoiding the franchise tag and restructuring CeeDee Lamb’s deal, the Cowboys save cap space, allowing them to be more aggressive in free agency.
- The Jets released WR Davante Adams, saving nearly $30 million in space. Entering his 12th season, Adams — who just had 85 catches for 1,063 yards and eight TDs — joins Chris Godwin as the best two receivers available this offseason. Because Adams was cut, he does not factor into compensatory-pick determinations.
As for my Bengals, it’s shaping up to be a long summer. Deals for Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase are far from complete.
Last edition’s most-clicked: How Deebo Samuel fits nicely in Washington OC Kliff Kingsbury’s up-tempo scheme.
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(Photos: Justin Casterline, David Eulitt / Getty Images)
