By Jeff Zrebiec, Mike DeFabo, Paul Dehner Jr. and Zac Jackson
Each week during the regular season and occasionally during the offseason, our AFC North writers gather for a roundtable discussion on trending topics, the best players and the biggest factors in determining which teams can survive this division. It’s time for the Week 17 edition.
The AFC North race took a dramatic turn since we last Whipped, with the Steelers losing twice and Ravens winning twice. Now Baltimore only needs a win over Cleveland next week to take the division. What was the most surprising element of the Christmas results with the Steelers and Ravens?
Jeff Zrebiec (Ravens): Can I get on my soapbox for a moment? I just want to say I agree with LeBron James when he says Christmas is the NBA’s holiday. Why does the NFL feel compelled to have a game on every holiday, on every day of the week? I actually know the answer to that, but the point remains. And sending the same team on the road back-to-back Christmases feels wholly unnecessary, too. As for Wednesday’s results, I think the overriding surprise was that neither game was all that competitive. Given how much was at stake, I expected to watch a motivated Steelers team play the Kansas City Chiefs to the wire, if not win. That didn’t happen. I also went to Houston thinking the Ravens were going to face a competent and talented Texans team that was going to cause problems in all three phases. The Texans were brutal, ensuring that they probably won’t be playing on Christmas for a while. They’re the lucky ones.
GO DEEPER
With 3 wins in 11 days, the Ravens stamped themselves as legitimate contenders
Mike DeFabo (Steelers): The Steelers’ 29-10 loss to the Chiefs wasn’t shocking. After all, Patrick Mahomes is a three-time Super Bowl champion for a reason. What is a bit surprising is that the loss was the third consecutive time the Steelers have faced a big test — and completely flunked it. We knew this three-game-in-11-day stretch would tell us a lot about Pittsburgh. There’s no shame in falling to teams of the caliber of the Philadelphia Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs. But the Steelers weren’t really competitive in any of the three, outscored by a combined margin of 90-40. Neither side of the ball has risen to the occasion against top-tier talent.
The skid began with the Steelers’ offense putting up a season-low 163 yards against the Eagles and ended with a 10-point whimper against the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the defense that was supposed to carry the team is now talking about players not fulfilling their assignments after surrendering an average of 402 yards and 27.6 points to opposing offenses over the last three games. Maybe the Steelers can win an opening-round game in Houston (the Texans’ poor performance was another big Christmas Day takeaway). But unless the product significantly improves, the Steelers don’t currently look like a team that can beat the Chiefs, Buffalo Bills or Ravens.
GO DEEPER
The Steelers had 3 chances to prove they’re contenders. They struck out
Paul Dehner Jr. (Bengals): If the Ravens’ defense has truly found itself, they belong at the top of the Super Bowl contender list. I’d take them over the entire NFC North as well as Buffalo and Kansas City. History in January being a separate conversation, the way the Ravens offense can pound the football to put away wins as well as Lamar Jackson’s ability to create explosive plays every time he drops back makes for a frightening combination. The defense has just been such a liability that it didn’t feel realistic to put them against the well-rounded Chiefs or Josh Allen’s offense and think they could run the table. I don’t know if the Texans being a mess or the Steelers’ fast fade makes me a full believer, but it sure looks from here like they built momentum for a February run.
Zac Jackson (Browns): Not much. The Steelers have hit their ceiling, and the Ravens have been trending upward the last month as they’ve cleaned up some things defensively. Three teams can win the AFC, and the Ravens are in that tier. The Chiefs are reminding everyone that they’re still a force, too, so it’s not like the Steelers jogged out and lost to the Browns (again). But in a game the Steelers needed, the Chiefs thoroughly dominated. And in a game the Ravens needed, they left zero doubt.
Featuring two divisional games, the AFC North “Hard Knocks” was built for this week and offered plenty of insight into all four clubs. What stood out from your team this week?
Zrebiec: This was probably the most interesting “Hard Knocks” episode of the series, but that bar is pretty low. One thing that seemed clear in the footage with John Harbaugh and the snippets of team meetings was how the sense of urgency in the Ravens’ building has ratcheted up. They knew what they were up against during this three-game-in-11-day span. You saw that with the attention to detail and focus in some of the footage. The clip of Harbaugh sitting in the back row in defensive coordinator Zach Orr’s meeting and interjecting was also different. Harbaugh and his staff have gotten plenty of criticism this year, but they had the Ravens ready to go during this rapid stretch of games — and they’re now in first place because of it.
DeFabo: Baltimore’s defensive analyst Noah Riley stood in front of the Ravens and explained that Russell Wilson’s game is all about “3-pointers and layups. There’s no midrange with this dude. He throws the intermediate ball the least in the NFL. He throws the deep ball the most in the NFL.” If you’ve read my game coverage, I’ve described the Steelers’ offense as boom-or-bust, as it’s often relied on the moonball to provide a spark. I love the basketball analogy. It has certainly hurt the Steelers that they had to play three games without their best deep threat, George Pickens. Now that everyone is keying on Wilson’s deep ball and playing more two-high coverages, it will be up to the Steelers to adapt while also finding ways to scheme open shot plays.
Dehner: One of the better moments of Joe Burrow mic’d up during the game came after his Superman touchdown pass to Tee Higgins. You heard the pure disbelief in his voice at what he was able to pull off. These crazy off-script, off-platform plays he continues to make are getting to the point where even he’s amazed. It’s remarkable how many of them he’s willing to just give a chance to in the moment to see if they work, and they actually keep working.
“Holy God!” @JoeyB was in disbelief after his falling pass TD 😅 @Bengals#HardKnocks on @streamonmax pic.twitter.com/Rz33kQJnCs
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) December 26, 2024
Jackson: The show is only including the Browns for the same reason the team is still going through the practice and Sunday motions. Because it has to. The Browns aren’t trying to win, as we all know Dorian Thompson-Robinson has absolutely zero chance out there. In a different circumstance, the “Hard Knocks” clips of Kevin Stefanski and Jameis Winston talking about the coach having to bench the quarterback would be compelling. But the show still needing to spotlight Winston says it all about the state of the Browns, and all involved just need this miserable season to end.
Awards season is almost upon us, and the North will be full of contenders. Buy or sell the case of one player on your team for a major individual award?
Zrebiec: The weekly MVP rankings and the rush to crown someone and declare the race over have grown tiresome. It’s also sad that people on both sides of the argument feel the need to deride the other candidates to make the case for their guy. I believe Jackson should win his third MVP, but there’s no reason to denounce the cases for Allen and even Saquon Barkley. Let’s face it, in a different year, all three could be runaway winners with the type of seasons they’re having. However, my vote would go to Jackson, who is having the best season of his career and is threatening to post the all-time single-season passer rating in NFL history.
Jackson leads the NFL in passer rating, yards per pass attempt, touchdown-to-interception ratio, expected points added per dropback and quarterback rushing yards. He’s second in passing touchdowns and fourth in passing yards. He has accounted for 43 touchdowns and has just four interceptions, and three of those bounced off the hands of his pass catchers. We’re talking about a guy who is top-five in the NFL in passing yards and top-20 in rushing yards. That’s absurd. And for all the talk about how Jackson’s case is weakened by Baltimore’s five losses, let’s not forget how the Ravens had the 32nd-ranked pass defense for much of the season and Justin Tucker has missed 10 kicks, most of them coming in one-score losses. That shouldn’t be held against Jackson’s candidacy.
DeFabo: Mike Tomlin once had a case for Coach of the Year, but that’s probably out the window after blowing a two-game division lead. Burrow probably has Comeback Player of the Year wrapped up and Wilson might get some votes, but Cameron Heyward actually has a great case of his own. After missing six games last season and enduring two surgeries (one in-season and one after), he’s returned to an All-Pro level. Even at 35 years old, he’s one of the best interior defensive linemen in the league, ranking first at his position in tackles (70), tackles for loss (12) and batted passes (8). He’s also second at his position in sacks (8) and tied for second in pressures (55).
In a muddled field, T.J. Watt once again has an argument for winning Defensive Player of the Year. The Steelers’ star outside linebacker currently ranks fourth leaguewide in sacks with 11 1/2 (half a sack behind Myles Garrett), first in tackles for loss with 19 (one ahead of Garrett), first in forced fumbles (six) and tied for third in fumble recoveries (two). Of course, we know the only stat that matters is pass-rush win rate, so the award will go to whoever Pro Football Focus tells us it should.
Dehner: I’ll put forward the case of Ja’Marr Chase for Offensive Player of the Year. Barkley is currently a significant betting favorite. And I get it. He’s racked up 2,114 yards from scrimmage with two games to go. That number will end up in the top 10 all time. Nobody would have a problem giving him the award. Yet, Chase is cruising to the triple crown, leading the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns by a wide margin.
Teams focus on taking him away every week and can’t, largely due to how capable he’s proven at moving all around the formation so he can’t be pinned down or consistently doubled. The physical and mental ability it routinely takes to free himself up to the degree he has this year is vastly underappreciated. Also, he would become only the fifth player in the Super Bowl era to pull off a triple crown, joining Jerry Rice, Sterling Sharpe, Steve Smith and Cooper Kupp. He’s posted a truly historical season. There are currently 42 players who posted more yards from scrimmage in a single season than Barkley. That number will decrease over the next two weeks, of course, but considering the elite company Chase finds himself in, there should be much more conversation about him winning the award.
Ja’Marr Chase is leading the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns by a wide margin. (Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
Jackson: Garrett for Defensive Player of the Year. And also for the Look At Me award (which I just made up). Garrett remains a force, and the fact that he might win a sack title on a three-win team speaks to his greatness. But whatever motivations — almost certainly multiple — Garrett had for choosing last Friday to hint that he might try to force a trade from the largely hopeless Browns in the offseason, none of them were exactly team-driven or team-friendly. The trade deadline was almost two months ago, and this Browns season was sunk a month before that. Garrett is still playing with maximum effort and still dictating opponent game plans, but he could have waited until the end of the season to go public with his plans to bully the franchise and make Cleveland admit that its future is bleak.
Predictions for the weekend: Who do you like in Broncos-Bengals and Dolphins-Browns?
Zrebiec: The Bengals seem determined to keep this interesting until the very end, and I can’t imagine the Bills, the likely No. 2 seed, have any interest in Burrow and company showing up at their place in the wild-card round. The Denver Broncos have surprised me all year, but I like the Bengals in a close one with Burrow leading a late game-winning drive. And I’ll take Miami over Cleveland. I think the Browns will get up for an opportunity to prevent the Ravens from winning the division in Week 18, but I can’t imagine their motivation will be particularly high this week.
DeFabo: In the spirit of my dog eating Christmas ornaments off my tree, let’s have some fun with this. Opponents like to hand out rally towels the week they play the Steelers to combat all those yellow Terrible Towels. For some reason, they give them to the media, too. So naturally I gave mine to my dog, Zeke. Yesterday, he sprinted into my bedroom waving an orange towel. Broncos orange, that is. Always trust animals when gambling. At this point in the season, I think the Dolphins have more to play for — even though their playoff chances are bleak and there’s a reason they’re on the outside looking in. I’ll take Miami.
GO DEEPER
Bengals’ young defense’s progress is significant vs. Broncos on Saturday and beyond
Dehner: The Bengals are 0-7 this season against teams with a winning record. They are 7-1 against everyone else with the worst strength of victory in football. They’ve won three in a row but haven’t looked particularly impressive doing it. I think one last heartbreaking defeat against a good team is in their future. Denver by a point. I would like Cleveland if this were a typical Northeast Ohio December day, but they’re calling for a high of 56 with rain in the forecast. Not cold enough to rattle Miami. Dolphins win.
Jackson: For the Browns, it’s about making history. Not many teams have two games flexed out of national TV spots, and only one quarterback out of 479 who have 10 appearances and 100 attempts since 1970 has a lower yards per pass attempt than Thompson-Robinson’s 3.9. That one, Spergon Wynn at 3.8, also played for the Browns 24 years ago. Shoutout to TruMedia for those numbers. Oh, you wanted predictions? Broncos 27, Bengals 26. Dolphins 20, Browns 10.
(Top photo: Tim Warner / Getty Images)
