It wouldn’t be March Madness without upsets, and the 2025 postseason has gotten off to a good start with surprises aplenty in the conference tournaments. William & Mary won the CAA as the ninth seed; James Madison lost the Sun Belt title despite being undefeated in conference play; a pair of San Diego schools (UC San Diego and San Diego State) won their conference crowns as No. 4 seeds; and Oregon State took down the top two seeds in the WCC for an automatic bid a year after the Pac-12 collapsed, threatening the Beavers’ program in the process.
But the women’s NCAA Tournament isn’t as upset-friendly in the early rounds as conference tournaments. Host sites give the top-four seeds an extra advantage, and for all the talk of parity, that doesn’t necessarily extend to the full 68-team field. In 2024, there was one first-round upset and three more in the second round for a ratio of one every 12 games. That picked up in the later rounds on neutral sites, as half of the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games were upsets by seed.
As we look at the first round of this year’s NCAA Tournament, keep in mind that chaos isn’t terribly likely, and maybe that’s for the best in the long run so that the rest of the tournament will deliver marquee matchups. For now, here are five first-round games that seem most likely to create fireworks.
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Harvard
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Harvard enters the NCAA Tournament 11th nationally in NET rating, per CBB Analytics, compared to 28th for the Spartans. Considering only Quad 1 games (since Harvard’s Ivy League schedule wasn’t necessarily as challenging as Michigan State’s in the Big Ten), the Crimson’s NET rating of plus-4.0 points per 100 possessions still exceeds Michigan State’s (minus-1.0). This is a clash of styles between Michigan State’s pace (96th percentile) versus Harvard’s tendency to walk up the ball — the Crimson’s pace is in the 12th percentile. It’s easier to slow teams down than speed them up, and considering Harvard runs a press of its own for 40 minutes, the Crimson should figure out the Spartans’ pressure without getting flustered. It’s the year of the Ivy League, with three teams in this year’s field. Harvard has the best shot of getting a win, and in the process, earning a unit distribution in the women’s tournament’s new financial era.
Mind if we dance a little?#GoCrimson x #BelieveIt pic.twitter.com/hLvobQSTD6
— Harvard Women’s Basketball (@HarvardWBB) March 17, 2025
No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 13 Norfolk State
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Diamond Johnson started her college career in the Big Ten at Rutgers before transferring to NC State and then landing with the Spartans for the last two seasons. She has played Maryland twice, scoring 18 and 17 points in a loss and a win, and knows what to expect from a Brenda Frese team. That’s a level of familiarity that mid-majors don’t always have with power conference opponents. Johnson averages 19 points per game while shooting 53.6 percent on 2s and 34.9 percent on 3s; she could realistically be the best player in this contest, which is the perfect recipe for a giant killer.
Norfolk State is also one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers, which the Spartans do on more than a quarter of opposing possessions. That is of particular concern for the Terrapins, who lost point guard Bri McDaniel to a season-ending injury. Another factor working in Norfolk State’s favor? Geography. Maryland is hosting, but the Spartans’ campus is less than four hours away, which should allow for a sizable traveling party. As a word of caution, No. 13 seeds are historically unlikely to win games, only pulling off the upset seven times in tournament history (5.8 percent of the time). Perhaps Norfolk State has the juice.
No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 11 Iowa State/No. 11 Princeton
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I’m hedging here, because I really believe only in the upset potential of the Cyclones. Audi Crooks has a track record of dominating undersized Big Ten teams in the first round, and despite the awesome perimeter prowess of the Wolverines, I don’t know who is supposed to guard Crooks since 6-foot-5 Yulia Grabovskaia comes off the bench. With Emily Ryan and Addy Brown in the backcourt, Iowa State can put together a reasonable defensive game plan on Syla Swords and Olivia Olson. The Cyclones’ inconsistency is a concern, and they’ll have to win a game just to get to the Michigan matchup. But they have Crooks, and that gives them a shot.
Go to work 🙌
🌪️🏀🌪️ pic.twitter.com/OGYrgCj1jn
— Cyclone Basketball (@CycloneWBB) March 8, 2025
No. 7 Louisville vs. No. 10 Nebraska
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Whenever the committee tries to engineer a perfect matchup, something gets in the way. Last season, Louisville was on track to face LSU, featuring transfer Hailey Van Lith, in the second round, but the Cardinals were upset by Middle Tennessee State (the lone upset of the opening round!). This year, Louisville and Van Lith, now with TCU, are again on a collision course, but Nebraska stands in the way. And this is a good Huskers team that moves and shoots the ball well, especially from 3-point range (37.2 percent for the season). Unlike the best Jeff Walz teams, this year’s Cardinals are better on offense than defense and could get run out of the gym by Nebraska, especially since they don’t defend the 3-point line well.
No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Florida Gulf Coast
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Truthfully, this pick is somewhat wild. A No. 14 seed has never won an NCAA Tournament game in the women’s bracket, and FGCU isn’t historically great. However, this is a rematch of last season’s first-round matchup when the Eagles lost by three. Statistically, this iteration of FGCU is better than in 2024 (by NET rating), though the Sooners are also much improved, and have a new cheat code in the form of Raegan Beers. If the Eagles can win the 3-point battle — and Oklahoma is prone to giving up a high volume of 3s (22.2 per game) — then perhaps FGCU can finally pull off its upset, one year later.
(Photo of Carrie Moore, left, and Harmoni Turner: Erica Denhoff / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
