The NBA has had a busy January without even mentioning the 15 hours we were all without TikTok! As the season’s halfway point nears, a lot is happening: Some teams are surging while others are free-falling. Award conversations are heating up and actually becoming meaningful. Oh, and we’ll find out this season’s All-Star starters this week and the reserves next week.
Here’s your latest NBA Rewind!
Stock Report extended
Right before the season, I might have written in The Bounce that the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns were being severely undervalued as title contenders. The Bucks won the NBA Cup. The Suns started 9-2. And after those moments, both teams respectively started spiraling in the middle of the regular season. Well, guess what? They’re both back! Maybe neither is a title contender, but at least they’re playing great basketball again. We’ve got all the trends — both good and bad — for you in this week’s NBA Stock Report:
📈 Milwaukee Bucks (24-17): Just when it seemed like the NBA Cup curse would be real for the second straight year, the Bucks have pulled themselves out of that post-Vegas hangover like they’re being fueled by breakfast burritos and bottles of water that laud a pH balance promise you don’t understand. The Bucks have won seven of their last eight games to pull themselves up to fourth in the Eastern Conference. They’re only two games behind the New York Knicks for third and trail the reeling Boston Celtics by 4.5 games for second. Over that eight-game span, Milwaukee is making more than half of its shots as a team while Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton and Gary Trent Jr. have each shot 50 percent.
📉 Orlando Magic (23-21): The good news is Paolo Banchero is back. The bad news is the Magic, who remain without both Wagner brothers and Jalen Suggs, are still extremely injured, and it feels like they’re losing grip of the proverbial rope. Orlando has lost five of its last six games and nine of 13. During this bad six-game stretch, the Magic have three guys averaging double figures. The team is barely shooting over 40 percent (40.2) from the field and 26 percent (26.2) from deep. Orlando has also missed Goga Bitadze for half of these games. Injuries have finally caught up to the Magic. Or maybe their record is catching up to the games their key players have missed.
📈 Phoenix Suns (21-20): Phoenix is having a roller-coaster of a season due to player availability … or lack thereof. As a reminder: the Suns started the season 9-2 and looked like they might throw their hats into the contention ring. Then, the injuries hit (primarily to Kevin Durant). Even when he returned, though, the Suns were struggling to play good basketball. They lost 16 of their next 22 games, making even the Play-In Tournament look like a pie-in-the-sky aspiration. Things have shifted for them again, but it’s been for the better. Phoenix has won six of its last eight games. Durant and Devin Booker have been great, the team has settled into a good role for Bradley Beal and they made a nice trade by grabbing center Nick Richards from Charlotte. He had 21 points and 11 rebounds in his team debut.
📉 Portland Trail Blazers (14-28): Fortunately for Portland, it beat the Chicago Bulls by a score of 113-102 on Sunday night to break a five-game losing streak. Not only that, but Scoot Henderson has been great lately. He’s averaging 20.7 points and 6.3 assists while making 52.1 percent of his shots and 47.4 percent of his 3-pointers during the last six games. So, why are the Trail Blazers trending down? This team has been awful besides that win over Chicago. The Blazers have looked mostly listless during this stretch. They lost to a Dallas team without its two best players, got blown out by a Heat team mired in controversy, were destroyed by a Nets team that lost by 59 points in its next game and then got hammered by the Clippers and Rockets. It’s not simply that the Trail Blazers are losing these games — it’s how they’re losing them. Chauncey Billups’ seat might be getting warm very soon.
📈 Charlotte Hornets (10-28): It’s not a massive turnaround, but after losing 10 straight games, the Hornets have won three of their last four. They split two games with Phoenix before beating Utah and Chicago in consecutive games. LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges and Mark Williams have been playing well during this past week, but they received some bad news with Brandon Miller being out with a torn ligament in his wrist. This might be the last time we get a chance to say Charlotte is trending upward, so I wanted to give Charles Lee’s team a little love here.
📉 Brooklyn Nets (14-29): I try to avoid trending teams in the same direction for consecutive weeks because it gets a little monotonous. It also feels like picking on a team when there can be various reasons beyond its control for a downward trend. However, I’ll remind you that last week we noted the Nets were in a 1-6 stretch in which they’d be outscored by 95 points in those six losses. Why do I bring that up again? Because they lost a game to the Clippers by 59 points this week! One game! A 59-point margin of defeat! They followed it up by nearly beating the Lakers at the buzzer, but you can’t lose by 59 and not find your way onto this list.
Big Story: Award SZN is actually here
I’m somewhat of a curmudgeon when it comes to awards conversations during the NBA season — well … for part of the NBA season. I believe the absolute earliest actual award discussions should begin is Jan. 1. But even then, I think that’s still a bit premature. Anything before that feels like filler when we should be discussing the games and product on the floor. An “MVP conversation” in November or December is pointless to me. At that point, far too much of the season remains, so the “conversation” aspect of it is just people wanting to talk about good players without ever committing to voting for them. If that’s the case, let’s just discuss that a certain player is playing extremely well and leave it there!
We’re reaching the halfway point of the season for pretty much every team this coming week, and that’s the perfect time to start really digging into this awards stuff. So, let’s take a quick look at the six main races right now before we start to firmly plant ourselves in the real arguments for league honors over the next three months. All of the awards betting odds for discussing current “favorites” are courtesy of BetMGM.com:
Most Improved Player: Cade Cunningham (-130) | Evan Mobley (+500) | Tyler Herro (+600)
Typically, the MIP award ends up going to a player a year after they’ve actually improved. Once that improvement happens, they get a consistent role to show off that improvement, their numbers mostly improve and they win the award. Cunningham’s numbers — whether on a per-36-minutes or per-100-possession basis — are mostly the same for him across the board, although I will say his defense is a lot better than it used to be. Herro’s numbers across the board are also mostly the same as we’ve seen the last couple years, but he has been more efficient with his shooting percentages. I’d argue that Mobley is the actual most improved of these three because we’ve seen him add quite a bit to his offensive game, mostly through being trusted as a creator/distributor. Cunningham winning the award wouldn’t be bad, though. Maybe Dyson Daniels should get more consideration, but I’d currently go with Mobley.
Sixth Man of the Year: Payton Pritchard (-200) | De’Andre Hunter (+425) | Amen Thompson (+700)
I find it hard to believe that anybody but Pritchard will win this award. He got off to a massive lead early on, so other players are just trying to catch up to him. Hunter has been excellent off the bench for Atlanta, and his 19.3 points per game would mark the second-highest scoring average for a Sixth Man winner in the last six seasons. Thompson brings a much different dynamic to this race in how he impacts the game with defense and athleticism, rather than being a scorer. But Pritchard’s impact and consistency so far have him as the leader.
And as a quick aside, Pritchard should probably be in the running for MIP. He’s +10,000 to win the award, but he’s actually improved tremendously. Prior to this season, he was just a guy in a rotation on a good team, and it didn’t really matter if he played. He wasn’t bad, but he was pretty replaceable by almost any backup point guard. This year, he’s integral to what the Celtics do and has become arguably the most reliable bench player in the league.
Rookie of the Year: Alex Sarr (+170) | Stephon Castle (+190) | Jaylen Wells (+300)
This is going to end up being one of the worst Rookie of the Year winners we’ve ever had because nobody has really had the type of season that has you projecting long-term stardom. But it doesn’t mean there aren’t good players for the future of their respective teams. Right now, I’d probably give it to Wells, considering Jared McCain tore his meniscus and will miss the remainder of this season, according to the Sixers. Otherwise, the latter would be running away with it. Sarr has played much better lately, so maybe he should be the favorite. Castle has had some really good moments. I’m just not sure this will be an exciting race at any point, though.
Coach of the Year: Kenny Atkinson (-450) | Jamahl Mosley (+1200) | Ime Udoka (+1200)
It feels like Atkinson is destined to win the award. That’s not to say there aren’t other deserving candidates: Mosley keeping the Magic in the mix in the East even though their two best players have been injured for significant time, Udoka turning a still-very young Rockets team into the No. 2 seed (so far) in the West and Mark Daigneault, who won the award last season, improving upon what the Thunder did. Taylor Jenkins, Tyronn Lue, J.B. Bickerstaff and Tom Thibodeau have also all been great. However, Atkinson has taken a team that looked like it had maximized its ceiling as a second-round out, and now they’re on pace for 70 wins. It’ll take a bad second half of the season for him to not win it. At least, that’s how it currently feels.
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama (-600) | Evan Mobley (+1200) | Jaren Jackson Jr. (+1400)
I’m not saying Wemby is not deserving of the award, and I do believe he’ll probably win it. However, the gulf between him and Mobley should not nearly be so vast. Wemby’s numbers are superb, and he changes the game in a way few can even imagine on that end of the floor. Unless it’s Ja Morant after the whistle, most players won’t even entertain challenging him around the rim. I do think Mobley has been just as good and more consistent defensively. He has fewer lulls throughout a game, as it still looks like Wemby is getting used to the grind and minutes of being that guy at the NBA level. They have similar impacts in terms of impacting team defensive rating when they’re on and off the floor. However, Mobley does have Jarrett Allen to help him, and Wemby’s job is more difficult on his own.
Most Valuable Player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-350) | Nikola Jokić (+250) | Giannis Antetokounmpo (+4000)
First and foremost, I hate comparing a candidate’s numbers to previous seasons when they won or competed for the award, so anything Jokić is doing now compared to previous winning seasons is entirely irrelevant. Each season should exist within itself and its own races. With that said, Jokic’s numbers are ridiculous no matter what you’re comparing them to. The Nuggets are currently fourth in the West, and they’re probably not good enough to just be there. Jokić has carried them in a truly heroic way on the court. He’s averaging a near-30-point triple-double (only two players have done that) while challenging for the best 3-point percentage in the league in the process.
On the counter side of that, SGA’s team is a having a lot more success and on pace to challenge 70 wins. He’s having his own ridiculous season, even though his numbers don’t look as eye-popping as Jokić’s. Prior to this season, we saw 11 campaigns with players averaging at least 31 points, six assists and five rebounds. Luka Dončić, James Harden, Michael Jordan and Oscar Robertson have all done it twice. LeBron James, Russell Westbrook and Jerry West also did it. Now include a true shooting percentage of at least 64 percent with those averages. SGA would be the first player in NBA history to pull that off.
As for one more thought to show how close this race is: there is a 23.5-point per 100-possession difference with Jokić on the floor (plus-12.6) versus when he’s off the court (minus-10.9). That should give him a massive stranglehold on winning his fourth MVP award, right? The Thunder are plus-18.9 per 100 possessions with Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor. They’re minus-0.6 with him off the floor. That’s a 19.5-point swing. It’s not quite as dramatic as Jokić’s mark, but I bet it’s a lot closer than anybody thought it was. This is going to be an awesome MVP race.
The Week Ahead: All-Star Starters will be named
Today, All-Star voting concludes. Fan, media and player votes are all due. I was fortunate enough to be asked to participate in the media portion of the voting. The fan portion accounts for 50 percent of the share, and 25 percent each go to the player and media voting for the starters. From there, the coaches for each conference will decide the 14 reserves (seven from the East, seven from the West) for the new format.
Thursday, we’ll have the starters named on TNT, and then we’ll start trying to figure out how the coaches will select reserves. We have a pretty good idea of how the starters are going to shake out. These feel like locks for the selections in the East and West:
The spots up in the air for the remaining selections are between Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis and Victor Wembanyama for the third frontcourt spot in the West. I voted for Wemby, mostly because Durant missed so many games in the first half of the season. I also just think Wemby has been slightly better than Davis to warrant the selection. We’ll see if fans, media and players agree, but my guess is it will go to Durant.
The other West backcourt spot is between Steph Curry and Luka Dončić. Both are household names, spectacular players and deserving of the honor. Curry has been surging ahead in fan voting past Dončić, and the Dallas Mavericks star has missed quite a bit of time with this calf injury. Maybe games missed will be the deciding factor and push Curry to yet another starting selection.
The East backcourt spot next to Mitchell will be fascinating. LaMelo Ball has the most fan votes by a lot. He’s a super-popular player with young people, and they don’t seem to care that the Hornets are so bad. Ball is dropping 30 a night and making cool plays. But are the media and players going to vote him enough to help him finish in the top two for East backcourt options? He’s going up against Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, Damian Lillard, Trae Young and maybe even Tyrese Maxey or Cade Cunningham?
Ball has been an All-Star before, which could help when coaches are picking reserves. However, there are so many options for the coaches to pick from on much better teams that it’s not a guarantee he’ll make it. It’s weird to think of the possibility that Ball could finish with the most votes among East guards and not get selected as a starter or a reserve — especially when the All-Star Game is both “for the fans” and a celebration of the league. If he’s that popular, then maybe he needs to be a part of it regardless of how the voting system shakes out?
We’ll know more when Ernie Johnson announces it Thursday.
(Top photo of Evan Mobley: David Liam Kyle / Getty Images )
