Headlines: $100M on the bench, plus Campbell's onside kick, NFL's most improved

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Today, let’s talk about Kirk Cousins’ benching, the most improved offensive players and Dan Campbell’s controversial onside kick.

Atlanta’s Big Change: Cousins benched for Penix

After drafting Matt Ryan third overall in 2008, Atlanta watched as he started 232 of 235 games before departing after the 2021 season. In the three years since, the Falcons have shuffled through Marcus Mariota (5-8), Desmond Ridder (8-9), Taylor Heinicke (1-3) and this year’s 7-7 start with Kirk Cousins.

Last night, the team announced rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. will join that list on Sunday against the 2-12 Giants. You should know:

• Cousins’ performance made this necessary. Across his last five games, the 36-year-old thew nine interceptions and posted an EPA per dropback that ranks behind Jameis Winston (also benched) and Tommy DeVito. Atlanta went 1-4 in that span.
• Meanwhile, Penix was impressing. As The Athletic’s Jeff Howe wrote earlier this month, the No. 8 pick “has blown away the Falcons’ brass, from the way he carried himself in the building over the offseason to his regular-season work on the practice field.”

What Dianna’s Hearing: What now for Cousins?

As Cousins told us on the “Scoop City” podcast this summer, he was heading home from a Falcons draft-night party at Mercedes-Benz Stadium when offensive coordinator Zac Robinson called with news: Atlanta was drafting a quarterback.

Cousins had signed with the Falcons in part because there wouldn’t be a quarterback-in-waiting behind him — he saw it as a place he could settle into longterm. With last night’s announcement, there’s a real chance he could be one-and-done in Atlanta.

The biggest obstacle to a breakup: Cousins’ contract, which for all intents and purposes is a two-year deal. Releasing him after the season would cost the team $65 million in dead money, according to Over the Cap. Though if they keep him through 2025, they could cut him after that season and incur only a $25 million dead-cap hit.

Also, don’t forget that Cousins has a no-trade clause, so any potential trade would require his approval.

Back to you, Jacob.

The NFL’s Most Improvement Offensive Players, So Far 🏆

With Cousins’ play deteriorating, I wanted to reflect on the opposite: The most improved players at each position. We’ll start with the offense today. Let’s go.

QB: Sam Darnold, Vikings. As Mike Sando explains, the 27-year-old’s biggest improvement has come when playing from behind. Prior to 2024, his completion rate, yards per attempt and TD-to-INT ratio all plummeted when playing catch-up. Not this year, as he’s been better when trailing:

RB: Bijan Robinson, Falcons. The first-rounder had great moments as a 2023 rookie, but also led his position in fumbles and struggled in pass blocking. This year, while avoiding fumbles entirely, improving as a blocker and remaining explosive, Robinson is third in missed tackles forced. After finishing 38th his rookie year, Robinson’s PFF grade of 91.7 currently ranks second, behind only Derrick Henry.

WR1: Jerry Jeudy, Browns. Expectations were high after the Broncos drafted him No. 15 in 2020, ahead of CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson and Brandon Aiyuk. He always could run routes …

… but in Cleveland, he’s finally showing why he was picked that highly. Since the Browns traded away Amari Cooper, Jeudy’s 804 yards rank behind only Ja’Marr Chase, and have the fifth-year pro sitting fifth in receiving yards, having passed 1,000 for the first time in his career. Unfortunately, the Browns are switching to Dorian Thompson-Robinson this week.

WR2: Jauan Jennings, 49ers. Improvement is the theme of his career, as the former seventh-round pick has seen his PFF grade increase every season, starting at 66.2 in 2021 and sitting at 84.4 today, 12th at his position. Matt Barrows explains how Jennings continues to get better.

TE: Jonnu Smith, Dolphins. Since QB Tua Tagovailoa’s return in Week 8, Smith has 504 yards (second among TEs in that span), 49 receptions (third) and five touchdowns (first). His PFF grade of 78.1 is the best of his eight-year career.

OT: Charles Cross, Seahawks. The No. 9 pick in 2022, he is playing the best football of his career. After middling PFF grades his first two seasons (63.1, 67.6), he is at 82.9 this season, ninth among offensive tackles.

G: Jordan Meredith, Raiders. Undrafted in 2021, he’s been rotating between both guard spots and is now a top-10 guard by PFF grade. Since earning a starting job earlier this year, he hasn’t allowed a sack in his 574 snaps.

C: Connor McGovern, Bills. This season, the former guard was tasked with replacing longtime center Mitch Morse. He’s excelled, ranking eighth in PFF grade (71.1) and not allowing even a single hit on Josh Allen in 840 snaps. Buffalo’s impressive line was the unsung hero of their recent win in Detroit.

Tomorrow, we’ll look at the most improved defensive players. Speaking of Bills-Lions …

Onside Kicks: Revisiting Dan Campbell’s decision

As Ted Nguyen notes in his evaluation of Week 15’s best/worst coaching decisions, we love Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness. His faith in his players, too.

While the comeback was unlikely either way, Ted writes that Campbell’s onside-kick attempt with 12 minutes left was still reckless. Campbell seemed to regret it, saying postgame, “Obviously, now sitting here in hindsight after them taking it down to the 3-yard line, yeah, I wish I wouldn’t have done that, but it is what it is.”

Had this occurred prior to rule changes that require teams to declare onside kicks beforehand, Campbell’s decision could’ve worked better. (Remember Sean Payton’s surprise onside kick in a Super Bowl?) In the 2000s, surprise onside kicks had a 60 percent success rate, per one study. Expected kicks? Just 20 percent. Multiple rule changes have further negated the benefits of the onside kick, knocking last season’s recovery rate to just 5.2 percent, per TruMedia.

Even without the surprise, the kick was a Mack Hollins fingertip from Detroit stealing a possession:

Then again, the odds of a successful recovery are so low that this call — early in the fourth quarter — was likely to end in better field position for Buffalo. Let’s compare each argument, and then I want to hear from you:

On one hand: You can’t trust the Lions defense. Until that point, Buffalo’s offense had dominated the injury-depleted Lions, punting just once in eight possessions. The Bills had scored five touchdowns and attempted two field goals. By risking a likely 30 yards of field position, Detroit had a chance to steal a possession from Josh Allen. Down 10 in the fourth quarter and confident in his kicker’s ability, Campbell made the call. At that point, if it fails, at least the shorter field means less clock gets chewed up, and if it works, Campbell’s typical risk-taking pays off big.

On the other: You have to trust the Lions defense. The odds of getting another stop or at least holding Buffalo to a field goal had to be higher than the odds of recovering an anticipated onside kick. (On the day, Detroit forced three field goal tries and a punt.) So far this season, only three of 45 such onside attempts have succeeded league-wide, just 6.7 percent.

Which side do you take? Click here to share your perspective. We’ll include the best answers in Friday’s newsletter.

Yesterday’s most-clicked: The Athletic’s latest Power Rankings.

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(Photo: Gregory Shamus, Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)